While this is not a terrible surprise (I would have hoped we could have gotten more talent for the minimum), the Knicks have come to an oral agreement to sign Jared Jeffries (aka butter fingers). No real signings can occur until December 9th, but it has been well known for a while that Jeffries desired to sign with the Knicks if they would have him. His contract will be a 1 year at the veteran's minimum of $1.4 million. (Source Daily News)
The major question that I have is: Is this a sign that the other centers that were discussed as receiving interest from the Knicks are unreceptive to playing here for the price we will be offering. The Daily News report indicates that they believe the Knicks are still strongly looking at more Center depth, but with Turiaf on the roster and all reports signaling that Jerome Jordan will be a Knick at the beginning of the year, does this mean that Jeffries will be our last center signing (absent Shelden Williams for insurance). Is it reading too much into the scenario to think that if we had a verbal committment/serious interest from someone like Jeff Foster, that we might forgoe signing Jeffries and perhaps begin looking for guard depth. To me his signing signals that we are not getting any more help in the big man department (which is not a good sign). It is clear that he is a D'Antoni favorite, but from a talent perspective, you have to say he is a bottom tier center and his signing can only be seen as a last resort.
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Monday, December 5, 2011
Cutting Through the Spin: The Reality of Chris Paul 4
One of the biggest unanswered questions of this pre-season has been if the Knicks blatantly choose to avoid going after Chris Paul, what kind of moves could they make and what team could they field? Thats exactly what I would like to look at today.
There are several intriguing names that have come up in the Knicks stratosphere that they could go after if they are not handcuffed with the 1 year contract philosophy that must be adopted in order to be in the running for Paul's services in 2012. The most intriguing name (in my opinion) is our old boy Ill Will (Wilson Chandler). Chandler's situation is a unique and interesting one. He signed a 1 year deal in China that he expects to honor. The Chinese season ends in February 2012, allowing time for Chandler to sign with an NBA team before the season ends (assumedly before the deadline, since it will most likely be pushed back). Chandler is a restricted free agent with Denver (giving them the ability to match any offer), making his acquisition costly in a bidding war. However, if his Chinese team makes the playoffs he may not be able to sign with an NBA team this year, making him an unrestricted free agent in 2012. Ill Will has repeatedly expressed a desire to come back to New York. I love this guy and if you look at his numbers in China (recently had a 44 point 22 rebound game) the Knicks would immediately become dangerous with him on the roster. Keep your ears open in February for the developments of how he re-enters the NBA, since the method seriously affects the Knicks ability to acquire him.
Another intriguing 2012 free agent option is...dare I say it...Elton Brand. I seethe when I hear his name, however he is a dangerous player when he is on, and when Melo or Stoudemire draw double teams, his jumper could be deadly. This obviously all depends on whether Brand is amnestied by the Sixers this year. In addition, while Brand could be a good fit for the Knicks, his asking price with the Sixers is way too high. I think that everyone knows today that Brand is not worth half the contract that he received from the Sixers. If Brand is able to figure that out by 2012, the Knicks might be able to pick him up on the (relatively) cheap and use him as a good bench/insurance for Amar'e player on the roster.
Also, by not going after Chris Paul the Knicks do not have to worry so much about having $13-$17 million in cap space next year and can make some moves after December 9th. The roster moves that would be most important would be finding a big man to support Amar'e from the blows in the paint and bolster the weak rebounding and defense of the current Knicks roster. Without being handcuffed by the cap I believe these names become part of the Knicks stratosphere:
Samuel Dalembert
Jeff Foster
Hence, if they use some of the money they expect to pay Paul on a combination of, perhaps, Dalembert (MLE) and Wilson Chandler (2012) we would be looking at a very dangerous team. Hollinger predicts there will be $13 million available, so my analysis will proceed given this number. Given my analysis of what players we could take on through exceptions, lets us look at a purely hypothetical roster:
Samuel Dalembert (5 mil MLE in 2011)
Wilson Chandler (6-7 mil signing in 2012)
Andre Miller (2-3 mil signing in 2012)
PG: Andre Miller
SG: Landry Fields
SF: Carmelo Anthony
PF: Amar'e Stoudemire
C: Samuel Dalembert
6: Wilson Chandler (sixth man of year, also takes time off Stoudemire's back)
7: Toney Douglas
8: Imam Schumpert
9: Jerome Jordan
10: Shawne Williams
11: Bill Walker
12: Andy Rautins
Better analysis to come when we see what initial moves the Knicks make after the free agent signing period begins.
There are several intriguing names that have come up in the Knicks stratosphere that they could go after if they are not handcuffed with the 1 year contract philosophy that must be adopted in order to be in the running for Paul's services in 2012. The most intriguing name (in my opinion) is our old boy Ill Will (Wilson Chandler). Chandler's situation is a unique and interesting one. He signed a 1 year deal in China that he expects to honor. The Chinese season ends in February 2012, allowing time for Chandler to sign with an NBA team before the season ends (assumedly before the deadline, since it will most likely be pushed back). Chandler is a restricted free agent with Denver (giving them the ability to match any offer), making his acquisition costly in a bidding war. However, if his Chinese team makes the playoffs he may not be able to sign with an NBA team this year, making him an unrestricted free agent in 2012. Ill Will has repeatedly expressed a desire to come back to New York. I love this guy and if you look at his numbers in China (recently had a 44 point 22 rebound game) the Knicks would immediately become dangerous with him on the roster. Keep your ears open in February for the developments of how he re-enters the NBA, since the method seriously affects the Knicks ability to acquire him.
Another intriguing 2012 free agent option is...dare I say it...Elton Brand. I seethe when I hear his name, however he is a dangerous player when he is on, and when Melo or Stoudemire draw double teams, his jumper could be deadly. This obviously all depends on whether Brand is amnestied by the Sixers this year. In addition, while Brand could be a good fit for the Knicks, his asking price with the Sixers is way too high. I think that everyone knows today that Brand is not worth half the contract that he received from the Sixers. If Brand is able to figure that out by 2012, the Knicks might be able to pick him up on the (relatively) cheap and use him as a good bench/insurance for Amar'e player on the roster.
Also, by not going after Chris Paul the Knicks do not have to worry so much about having $13-$17 million in cap space next year and can make some moves after December 9th. The roster moves that would be most important would be finding a big man to support Amar'e from the blows in the paint and bolster the weak rebounding and defense of the current Knicks roster. Without being handcuffed by the cap I believe these names become part of the Knicks stratosphere:
Samuel Dalembert
Jeff Foster
Hence, if they use some of the money they expect to pay Paul on a combination of, perhaps, Dalembert (MLE) and Wilson Chandler (2012) we would be looking at a very dangerous team. Hollinger predicts there will be $13 million available, so my analysis will proceed given this number. Given my analysis of what players we could take on through exceptions, lets us look at a purely hypothetical roster:
Samuel Dalembert (5 mil MLE in 2011)
Wilson Chandler (6-7 mil signing in 2012)
Andre Miller (2-3 mil signing in 2012)
PG: Andre Miller
SG: Landry Fields
SF: Carmelo Anthony
PF: Amar'e Stoudemire
C: Samuel Dalembert
6: Wilson Chandler (sixth man of year, also takes time off Stoudemire's back)
7: Toney Douglas
8: Imam Schumpert
9: Jerome Jordan
10: Shawne Williams
11: Bill Walker
12: Andy Rautins
Better analysis to come when we see what initial moves the Knicks make after the free agent signing period begins.
The Mid-Level Exception
There was an article in the Daily News today that stated the Knicks might be willing to use their mid-level exception on Jeff Foster, Anthony Parker or Grant Hill this year. News of such a move is confusing, since the mid-level exception has slightly changed under the new CBA. How does this effect the Knicks salary? Does it impact their ability to sign free agents in 2012? Let us first look at what the current mid-level exception is:
"Any team over the cap gets a four-year mid-level ($5 million max for year one) contract signing that is not limited by the cap . It can be used to sign one player for the $5 million or several players for a sum of $5 million."
The first year of a mid-level exception is not limited by the salary cap, but what about the next 3 years. If the Knicks signed Foster for $5 million for 4 years, does that mean that they will add $5 million to their salary in year 2, 3 and 4 (which would, of course, limit their ability to woo Chris Paul in the offseason)?
The answer to this question is...yes. The salary of the mid-level player (or players) does begin to count/be limited against the cap, beginning in year 2 and for any subsequent years of the contract. Essentially, any team that signs a player for the MLE in year 1 when they are over the cap, and then is not over the cap in year 2, that MLE money ($5 million) goes toward the calculation of salary. Therefore, in 2012, the Knicks would have $5 million less in cap space to sign free agents. This means that such a signing would reduce the likelihood of signing Chris Paul in 2012.
Also, there is another limiting feature to the use of the mid-level exception, that could effect who the Knicks will be able to sign in 2012.
"If you use the full mid-level to get to or approach that barrier looming $4 million over the tax line, you cannot cross it by re-signing your own free agents via Larry Bird Rights. You can cross it to sign rookies or players on veteran minimum contracts."
This means if you use the mid-level exception, and that move moves your salary total to above the luxury tax line, but below the $4 million mark above the luxury tax line, you can no longer use your Bird-Rights exceptions to sign any players that would take you over that magical line. Essentially, you can now only sign minimum contracts to fill up your roster. The Knicks are no where near that salary point yet, but it will be an important point not to cross considering that players, such as Landry Fields and Bill Walker might be signed in 2012 using Birds-Rights exceptions.
"Any team over the cap gets a four-year mid-level ($5 million max for year one) contract signing that is not limited by the cap . It can be used to sign one player for the $5 million or several players for a sum of $5 million."
| Non-Tax Payer MLE | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5 | |
| Year 2 | $5 | |
| Year 3 | $5.15 | |
| Year 4 | $5.30 | |
The first year of a mid-level exception is not limited by the salary cap, but what about the next 3 years. If the Knicks signed Foster for $5 million for 4 years, does that mean that they will add $5 million to their salary in year 2, 3 and 4 (which would, of course, limit their ability to woo Chris Paul in the offseason)?
The answer to this question is...yes. The salary of the mid-level player (or players) does begin to count/be limited against the cap, beginning in year 2 and for any subsequent years of the contract. Essentially, any team that signs a player for the MLE in year 1 when they are over the cap, and then is not over the cap in year 2, that MLE money ($5 million) goes toward the calculation of salary. Therefore, in 2012, the Knicks would have $5 million less in cap space to sign free agents. This means that such a signing would reduce the likelihood of signing Chris Paul in 2012.
Also, there is another limiting feature to the use of the mid-level exception, that could effect who the Knicks will be able to sign in 2012.
"If you use the full mid-level to get to or approach that barrier looming $4 million over the tax line, you cannot cross it by re-signing your own free agents via Larry Bird Rights. You can cross it to sign rookies or players on veteran minimum contracts."
This means if you use the mid-level exception, and that move moves your salary total to above the luxury tax line, but below the $4 million mark above the luxury tax line, you can no longer use your Bird-Rights exceptions to sign any players that would take you over that magical line. Essentially, you can now only sign minimum contracts to fill up your roster. The Knicks are no where near that salary point yet, but it will be an important point not to cross considering that players, such as Landry Fields and Bill Walker might be signed in 2012 using Birds-Rights exceptions.
Friday, December 2, 2011
Thursday, December 1, 2011
Cutting Through The Spin: The Reality of Chris Paul 3
The news stories today are that Chris Paul has demanded, through an intermediary, to be traded to the Knicks. The initial gasps of columnists were, of course, the Knicks have nothing to trade! They have no assets! While these claims are all technically true, they are besides the point. As I have outlined before, the only way a trade gets done with the Knicks and the Hornets is if Paul unequivocally states that he will not sign with anyone else (he will not do this, it will hurt his brand and Paul is not known for taking daring moves). In such a scenario, New Orleans hand will be forced and the Knicks lack of tradable assets will mean very little.
However, let us just contemplate what a sign and trade might look like between the Knicks and Hornets if there was a desire to exchange equivalent assets.*
First, we must look at the relevant rule that limits how much money the Knicks can take on, i.e. can they go well over the cap? The relevant rule in question states:
"Teams above the cap (which the Knicks are) cannot acquire more than 125% plus $100,000 of the salary they trade away. There is no lower limit—teams may divest themselves of as much salary as they wish in a trade." (Source wikipedia)
What this means is that the Knicks, if they were trading for Paul alone ($16,359,805), could not give away any less than $13,187,844 in return (125% + $100,000). This is relevant, because the Hornets are going to look to divest themselves of salary most likely (give away more salary than they take on) because if this trade happens, you can be sure they will be divesting themselves of more talent and thus they need to make it good for them in other ways. It is important to note that Chauncey Billups, a guaranteed part of any trade, makes more than this by himself. So, in order to divest themselves of the maximum amount of money, New Orleans is going to look to also get rid of a 2+ year contract of a player who is not a regular contributor.
The only one on their roster that currently fits that description is Quincy Poindexter. He only makes 1.1 million a year, but he is the only other Hornet with 2+ years left on his contract other than Trevor Ariza. I would assume that Ariza would be part of the Hornets future, but I will entertain a trade with him as well in this analysis. On the Knicks side, you would have to assume that the Hornets will go after the Knicks only remaining tradable assets: Landry Fields and Toney Douglas.
First Potential Trade
Chris Paul Chauncey Billups
Quincy Poindexter Landry Fields
Toney Douglas
$17,513,605 $16,134,512
This trade fits into the rule and would be successful. From a talent perspective it is not as lopsided as one would think. Poindexter is a throw in, but for the 2011-2012 season the gap between Chauncey Billups and Chris Paul is diluted somewhat by the addition of Fields and Douglas. One would also assume that future draft picks and cash consideration would be included in this trade.
Second Potential Trade
Chris Paul Chauncey Billups
Trevor Ariza Landry Fields
Toney Douglas
Ronny Turiaf
Renaldo Balkman
$23,150,445 $22,439,512
While this trade works, according to the rules, New Orleans fails to shed any salary and really loses out on a talent standpoint. This trade would never happen, even with Paul's insistence on only signing an extension with the Knicks.
If one would have to guess, the only scenario possible is that Paul leverages New Orleans to pull the trigger on trade #1. Outside of that, there would have to be a 3rd team to make this happen. Given the vast possibilites of a 3rd team at this point, I will not even discuss any of those possibilities.
*This analysis will of course change once the Knicks begin signing free agents after December 9th this year, thus giving them more assets.
However, let us just contemplate what a sign and trade might look like between the Knicks and Hornets if there was a desire to exchange equivalent assets.*
First, we must look at the relevant rule that limits how much money the Knicks can take on, i.e. can they go well over the cap? The relevant rule in question states:
"Teams above the cap (which the Knicks are) cannot acquire more than 125% plus $100,000 of the salary they trade away. There is no lower limit—teams may divest themselves of as much salary as they wish in a trade." (Source wikipedia)
What this means is that the Knicks, if they were trading for Paul alone ($16,359,805), could not give away any less than $13,187,844 in return (125% + $100,000). This is relevant, because the Hornets are going to look to divest themselves of salary most likely (give away more salary than they take on) because if this trade happens, you can be sure they will be divesting themselves of more talent and thus they need to make it good for them in other ways. It is important to note that Chauncey Billups, a guaranteed part of any trade, makes more than this by himself. So, in order to divest themselves of the maximum amount of money, New Orleans is going to look to also get rid of a 2+ year contract of a player who is not a regular contributor.
The only one on their roster that currently fits that description is Quincy Poindexter. He only makes 1.1 million a year, but he is the only other Hornet with 2+ years left on his contract other than Trevor Ariza. I would assume that Ariza would be part of the Hornets future, but I will entertain a trade with him as well in this analysis. On the Knicks side, you would have to assume that the Hornets will go after the Knicks only remaining tradable assets: Landry Fields and Toney Douglas.
First Potential Trade
Chris Paul Chauncey Billups
Quincy Poindexter Landry Fields
Toney Douglas
$17,513,605 $16,134,512
This trade fits into the rule and would be successful. From a talent perspective it is not as lopsided as one would think. Poindexter is a throw in, but for the 2011-2012 season the gap between Chauncey Billups and Chris Paul is diluted somewhat by the addition of Fields and Douglas. One would also assume that future draft picks and cash consideration would be included in this trade.
Second Potential Trade
Chris Paul Chauncey Billups
Trevor Ariza Landry Fields
Toney Douglas
Ronny Turiaf
Renaldo Balkman
$23,150,445 $22,439,512
While this trade works, according to the rules, New Orleans fails to shed any salary and really loses out on a talent standpoint. This trade would never happen, even with Paul's insistence on only signing an extension with the Knicks.
If one would have to guess, the only scenario possible is that Paul leverages New Orleans to pull the trigger on trade #1. Outside of that, there would have to be a 3rd team to make this happen. Given the vast possibilites of a 3rd team at this point, I will not even discuss any of those possibilities.
*This analysis will of course change once the Knicks begin signing free agents after December 9th this year, thus giving them more assets.
Free Agent Profile: Earl Watson
Watson is the fourth point guard profiled for the not unlikely, but not highly likely to sign with New York this year list. Watson made $1.2 million last season.
Point Guard
Played Last Season With Utah.
6'1'' 195lbs. 26. Career averages of 7.1 PPG and 4.5 APG. (4.3/3.5)
If there is ever a live action version of the movie "Dumbo", (see below) this guy will definitely get a call. In all seriousness, I love this guy as a back up to Chauncey. However, he ranks low on the list because I haven't even heard his name in the rumor of potential Knicks prospects. He is west-coast kid, he had a pretty decent season with Utah last year and has stated that he would like a long term contract. I don't think we will see this guy in a Knicks uniform, unfortunately.
[This kid has tremendous ears]
The most intriguing thing about Watson, is that despite his diminished role in a guard stacked line-up (Williams, Bell, Price) he put up decent numbers. If you look at his per 36 minutes stats he averaged close to 8 points and 7 assists last year. He is a quintessential spark plug guy; a guy who can get in and make things happen in a hurry. Also, Watson is a decent sized dude who is known to be a capable defender. Also, his low salary last year makes him the type of dependable guy who will not give the Knicks a hard time about his projected role. If nothing else, he would be the first Blaxican to play in a Knicks uniform [fact check].
Player most likely to be waived to get this player: Andy Rautins.
Point Guard
Played Last Season With Utah.
6'1'' 195lbs. 26. Career averages of 7.1 PPG and 4.5 APG. (4.3/3.5)
If there is ever a live action version of the movie "Dumbo", (see below) this guy will definitely get a call. In all seriousness, I love this guy as a back up to Chauncey. However, he ranks low on the list because I haven't even heard his name in the rumor of potential Knicks prospects. He is west-coast kid, he had a pretty decent season with Utah last year and has stated that he would like a long term contract. I don't think we will see this guy in a Knicks uniform, unfortunately.
[This kid has tremendous ears]The most intriguing thing about Watson, is that despite his diminished role in a guard stacked line-up (Williams, Bell, Price) he put up decent numbers. If you look at his per 36 minutes stats he averaged close to 8 points and 7 assists last year. He is a quintessential spark plug guy; a guy who can get in and make things happen in a hurry. Also, Watson is a decent sized dude who is known to be a capable defender. Also, his low salary last year makes him the type of dependable guy who will not give the Knicks a hard time about his projected role. If nothing else, he would be the first Blaxican to play in a Knicks uniform [fact check].
Player most likely to be waived to get this player: Andy Rautins.
Free Agent Profile: Sebastian Telfair
Telfair is the third point guard profiled for the not unlikely, but not highly likely to sign with New York this year list. Telfair made $2.7 million last season.
Point Guard
Played Last Season With Timberwolves.
6'0'' 165lbs. 26. Career averages of 7.8 PPG and 3.8APG. (7.2/3.0)
Could Brooklyn's prodigal* son be returning to the big city to revamp his career? Telfair has a combination of incredible upside, mixed with team cancer type qualities. The reason he is so low on this list is because he appears to be a head case (like his cousin Marbury) and the last thing the Knicks need on their roster is another damn headcase. The positive here: Telfair's career has taken so many bumps and bruises from a PR and playing time standpoint, he may be willing to come to New York for a 1 year minimum contract. The negative here: he can be a time bomb in the lockeroom and there is no guarantee that he is going to put in the effort in order to contribute in any fashion to the Knicks hopes of success this season.
But lets look at the Telfair's playing style. Anyone that has seen his documentary (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0457502/) is well aware of Telfair's ability to slash and see the court when he is one his game. His young age presents the promise that this point guard could resurect his career and show us all his first 7 years was a real fluke of bum-like behavior. Unfortunately, his attitude and past performance tells the tale Knicks fans are all too familiar with: a highly talented screw-up who literally can't bring himself to get out of his own way. If you look at his numbers you see a case study in mediocrity, however, if you look at his clips (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ubydt1V76mU) you see flashes of brilliance. In fact, his ability was enough for Knicks management to make a run at him last year. Only time will tell if this Brooklyn baller gets his act together and finds himself a valuable asset to a contending team.
*its hilarious how New Yorkers embrace native born players, regardless of their actual value.
Player most likely to be waived for this player: Andy Rautins.
Point Guard
Played Last Season With Timberwolves.
6'0'' 165lbs. 26. Career averages of 7.8 PPG and 3.8APG. (7.2/3.0)
Could Brooklyn's prodigal* son be returning to the big city to revamp his career? Telfair has a combination of incredible upside, mixed with team cancer type qualities. The reason he is so low on this list is because he appears to be a head case (like his cousin Marbury) and the last thing the Knicks need on their roster is another damn headcase. The positive here: Telfair's career has taken so many bumps and bruises from a PR and playing time standpoint, he may be willing to come to New York for a 1 year minimum contract. The negative here: he can be a time bomb in the lockeroom and there is no guarantee that he is going to put in the effort in order to contribute in any fashion to the Knicks hopes of success this season.
But lets look at the Telfair's playing style. Anyone that has seen his documentary (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0457502/) is well aware of Telfair's ability to slash and see the court when he is one his game. His young age presents the promise that this point guard could resurect his career and show us all his first 7 years was a real fluke of bum-like behavior. Unfortunately, his attitude and past performance tells the tale Knicks fans are all too familiar with: a highly talented screw-up who literally can't bring himself to get out of his own way. If you look at his numbers you see a case study in mediocrity, however, if you look at his clips (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ubydt1V76mU) you see flashes of brilliance. In fact, his ability was enough for Knicks management to make a run at him last year. Only time will tell if this Brooklyn baller gets his act together and finds himself a valuable asset to a contending team.
*its hilarious how New Yorkers embrace native born players, regardless of their actual value.
Player most likely to be waived for this player: Andy Rautins.
Free Agent Profile: Mike Bibby & Carlos Arroyo
Milos Biroyo is the second point guard profiled for the not unlikely, but not highly likely to sign with New York this year list. Milos Biroyo combined to make way more than they should have last season.
Point Guard
Played Last Season With Heat.
Combined 147" & 392lbs. of pathetic. Career averages of underwhelming city.
What you are dealing with here are two different flavors of useless. With an offense headed by Lebron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh last year, these two boneheads managed to make Mario Chalmers look like the toast of the class. Hence, the double profile: these two guys are so indistinguishably insignificant, it would be a tragedy to give them their own entries. With Milos Biroyo, you get a point guard that can dribble the ball up the court without getting it taking from their hands; at least 7 out of 10 times. Outside of that, these two will shoot an unimpressive percentage from 3, despite the fact that 90% of those shots will be wide open. In addition, you will get little to no ability to drive to the basket. These guys are only desirable in the sense that their ability to suck is so palpable, they cannot ask for anything more than a 1 year minimum contract without the other side laughing. We need someone to fill up the roster on a 1 year minimum contract. Sounds like a match made in Suckeaven to me.
Most likely to be waived to add these players: Whoever catches malaria and can no longer play basketball.
Point Guard
Played Last Season With Heat.
Combined 147" & 392lbs. of pathetic. Career averages of underwhelming city.
What you are dealing with here are two different flavors of useless. With an offense headed by Lebron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh last year, these two boneheads managed to make Mario Chalmers look like the toast of the class. Hence, the double profile: these two guys are so indistinguishably insignificant, it would be a tragedy to give them their own entries. With Milos Biroyo, you get a point guard that can dribble the ball up the court without getting it taking from their hands; at least 7 out of 10 times. Outside of that, these two will shoot an unimpressive percentage from 3, despite the fact that 90% of those shots will be wide open. In addition, you will get little to no ability to drive to the basket. These guys are only desirable in the sense that their ability to suck is so palpable, they cannot ask for anything more than a 1 year minimum contract without the other side laughing. We need someone to fill up the roster on a 1 year minimum contract. Sounds like a match made in Suckeaven to me.
Most likely to be waived to add these players: Whoever catches malaria and can no longer play basketball.
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Free Agent Profile: T.J. Ford
Ford is the first point guard profiled for the not unlikely, but not highly likely to sign with New York this year list. Ford made $8.5 million last season.
Point Guard
Played Last Season With Pacers.
6'0'' 165lbs. 28. Career averages of 11.4 PPG and 5.9APG. (5.4/3.4)
Ford is probably the only guy I like on this list of point guards, however he is also the least likely to take a pay cut to back up Chauncey Billups for 1 year. He is currently playing in Croatia, but he has stated that he is coming back to play this season in the NBA. All signs point to him not resigning with the Pacers, meaning that he will be in the market. The question is: what would make a serviceable point guard take a contract length and pay cut to play on the Knicks. Well I am glad you asked. Ford has recently seen his stock drop due to nagging injuries and clashing with players in the clubhouse. He has publicly stated that he is willing to take a smaller back-up role and he is in desperate need for a PR makeover. Perhaps the Knicks can convince him that one great year in New York will rebuild his name enough that he can benefit from a free agent bonanza in 2012.
So, assuming this works, what does Ford bring to the table. He is an old school point guard; in the sense that he handles the ball well, is not a prolific scorer and likes to sit back and let his teammates do the scoring. From a skill set standpoint he is a perfect fit for the Knicks. I place Ford in the mold of a small Jamaal Tinsley or Raymond Felton. Cross your fingers.
Player most likely waived to make room for this player: Andy Rautins.
Point Guard
Played Last Season With Pacers.
6'0'' 165lbs. 28. Career averages of 11.4 PPG and 5.9APG. (5.4/3.4)
Ford is probably the only guy I like on this list of point guards, however he is also the least likely to take a pay cut to back up Chauncey Billups for 1 year. He is currently playing in Croatia, but he has stated that he is coming back to play this season in the NBA. All signs point to him not resigning with the Pacers, meaning that he will be in the market. The question is: what would make a serviceable point guard take a contract length and pay cut to play on the Knicks. Well I am glad you asked. Ford has recently seen his stock drop due to nagging injuries and clashing with players in the clubhouse. He has publicly stated that he is willing to take a smaller back-up role and he is in desperate need for a PR makeover. Perhaps the Knicks can convince him that one great year in New York will rebuild his name enough that he can benefit from a free agent bonanza in 2012.
So, assuming this works, what does Ford bring to the table. He is an old school point guard; in the sense that he handles the ball well, is not a prolific scorer and likes to sit back and let his teammates do the scoring. From a skill set standpoint he is a perfect fit for the Knicks. I place Ford in the mold of a small Jamaal Tinsley or Raymond Felton. Cross your fingers.
Player most likely waived to make room for this player: Andy Rautins.
Cutting Through the Spin: The Reality of Chris Paul 2
I wanted to get more in depth with the options that the Knicks have in pursuing Chris Paul. For instance, I noted that the Knicks would most likely have to sign 4 minimum contracts to fill the roster; who could these people be? Which salaries would be limited by the cap? Which ones would fit into an exception? And why?
A basic rule that needs to be stated is that all NBA teams are limited by a salary cap. This means that any contract that causes the team to exceed the salary cap (currently at $58,043,000) will be void. However, in the NBA, unlike the NHL, the salary cap is a soft cap. It is called soft because there are several exceptions that can apply which will allow certain contracts to exceed the cap without becoming void. An example of exceptions are Bird's Rights, Rookie Contracts, Non-Bird Rights and Mid-Level Exceptions. If a player signs a contract with a team that puts them over the salary cap, but fits into one of these exceptions, his contract will not be void and that team will be allowed to exceed the cap.
In addition, there is a provision called the Amnesty Clause which allows a team to waive a player under contract without that player's salary counting against the salary cap or luxury tax. You can only amnesty one player during the duration of the new CBA. This basically means that for cap calculating purposes you can basically erase that player from the numbers. (The Amnesty Clause of the previous CBA, still counted against the cap, while did not count towards luxury tax penalties. However, indications are that the new CBA's Amnesty Clause will not count against the cap)
Renaldo Balkman is set to make $1,675,000 for the 2012-2013 season. All reports suggest that he will be amnestied, so his salary will not count towards the Knicks cap.
2012-2013 Salaries (w/o exceptions)
Amar'e Stoudemire $19,450,000
Carmelo Anthony $19,948,799
Imam Schumpert $1,444,000 (can be up to 120% of this number which would be $1,732,800)
Toney Douglas (TO) $2,067,880 (can not excercise Bird Rights exception b/c he has team option)
Total Sum: $42,910,679
2012-2013 Cap: $61,000,000
Difference: $18,089,321
Max Salary NBA in first year (7 yr Player): $16,324,500
(Source http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q11)
Difference: $1,564,821
This analysis will thus proceed from the idea that Paul will take a max contract. Unless my math is wrong, this seems entirely possible.
2012-2013 Salaries (not limited by cap)
Landry Fields $1,675,000? (min. salary would be $916,100 and could not exceed 175%)
The exception that would apply to Landry Fields would be the Early Bird Rights. Early Bird Rights apply to players who have spent at least 2 years with their current team without entering free agency or being waived. Fields will just have finished his 2nd year of his rookie contract and would qualify for the Early Bird Exception in his 3rd year (2012-2013 season). This, of course, assumes that Fields does not get a big head and try to go out into free agency and try to get his big pay day.
Draft Pick $1,350,000? (assuming Rd. 1 Pk. 20)
We do not currently have a draft pick in 2012, however one of the major goals for this season will be to acquire one. If the Knicks are truly serious about getting Chris Paul, they will need to sign a rookie in 2012, because that salary will not be limited by the cap. The Rookie signing exception allows a team to sign their first round draft pick without being limited by the cap. I will not speculate as to who could be traded to collect a draft pick.
Shawne Williams? $916,100? (salary would not be able to exceed 175% of previous salary
Depending on what the Knicks do with his contract this year, Shawne Williams could qualify for the Earl Bird Exception, as he would have played 2 years with the team without being waived or entering free agency. This could be complicated in that the lockout prevented the Knicks from signing him in the offseason, and he will technically be a free agent on December 9th, but I believe if we sign him to a 1 year contract this year he would meet this exception. If we cannot get Williams under an exception we may have to sign him with whatever remains after Paul is signed.
Bill Walker $947,907?
Bill Walker, having been with the team for 3 years at that point, would qualify for the Birds Rights Exception. Any player whose rights have been controlled by a team for 3 years without being waived or entering free agency qualifies for this exception. At the end of the 3 year period, the team can re-sign him and claim the Bird Exception and that player's salary will not count against the salary cap. In addition, all indications are that he would be willing to sign for the league minimum, which would also not count against the cap.
3-4 Minimum Contracts (salary impossible to predict)
As has been stated earlier, a minimum contract is not limited by the cap. The Knicks would most likely have to sign 4 of these players to field a full roster, perhaps 3 depending on whether or not we are able to sign Shawne Williams with an exception and get a first round pick. In order to get a hold of who these players may be let's look at 2012 free agents who may be less attractive on the market in 2012/willing to accept a minimum contract to play for a contender:
Kirk Hinrich
Boris Diaw
Keith Bogans
Baron Davis
Andre Miller
Ben Wallace
James Posey
Chris Kaman
Matt Barnes
Eddie House
Nazr Mohammed
(There is also the option of the Mid-Level Exception which would allow the Knicks to even exceed the Luxury Tax Cap with a $5 million dollar signing) Unless my math is out of whack, can someone please explain why the Knicks would be unable to do this?
A basic rule that needs to be stated is that all NBA teams are limited by a salary cap. This means that any contract that causes the team to exceed the salary cap (currently at $58,043,000) will be void. However, in the NBA, unlike the NHL, the salary cap is a soft cap. It is called soft because there are several exceptions that can apply which will allow certain contracts to exceed the cap without becoming void. An example of exceptions are Bird's Rights, Rookie Contracts, Non-Bird Rights and Mid-Level Exceptions. If a player signs a contract with a team that puts them over the salary cap, but fits into one of these exceptions, his contract will not be void and that team will be allowed to exceed the cap.
In addition, there is a provision called the Amnesty Clause which allows a team to waive a player under contract without that player's salary counting against the salary cap or luxury tax. You can only amnesty one player during the duration of the new CBA. This basically means that for cap calculating purposes you can basically erase that player from the numbers. (The Amnesty Clause of the previous CBA, still counted against the cap, while did not count towards luxury tax penalties. However, indications are that the new CBA's Amnesty Clause will not count against the cap)
Renaldo Balkman is set to make $1,675,000 for the 2012-2013 season. All reports suggest that he will be amnestied, so his salary will not count towards the Knicks cap.
2012-2013 Salaries (w/o exceptions)
Amar'e Stoudemire $19,450,000
Carmelo Anthony $19,948,799
Imam Schumpert $1,444,000 (can be up to 120% of this number which would be $1,732,800)
Toney Douglas (TO) $2,067,880 (can not excercise Bird Rights exception b/c he has team option)
Total Sum: $42,910,679
2012-2013 Cap: $61,000,000
Difference: $18,089,321
Max Salary NBA in first year (7 yr Player): $16,324,500
(Source http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q11)
Difference: $1,564,821
This analysis will thus proceed from the idea that Paul will take a max contract. Unless my math is wrong, this seems entirely possible.
2012-2013 Salaries (not limited by cap)
Landry Fields $1,675,000? (min. salary would be $916,100 and could not exceed 175%)
The exception that would apply to Landry Fields would be the Early Bird Rights. Early Bird Rights apply to players who have spent at least 2 years with their current team without entering free agency or being waived. Fields will just have finished his 2nd year of his rookie contract and would qualify for the Early Bird Exception in his 3rd year (2012-2013 season). This, of course, assumes that Fields does not get a big head and try to go out into free agency and try to get his big pay day.
Draft Pick $1,350,000? (assuming Rd. 1 Pk. 20)
We do not currently have a draft pick in 2012, however one of the major goals for this season will be to acquire one. If the Knicks are truly serious about getting Chris Paul, they will need to sign a rookie in 2012, because that salary will not be limited by the cap. The Rookie signing exception allows a team to sign their first round draft pick without being limited by the cap. I will not speculate as to who could be traded to collect a draft pick.
Shawne Williams? $916,100? (salary would not be able to exceed 175% of previous salary
Depending on what the Knicks do with his contract this year, Shawne Williams could qualify for the Earl Bird Exception, as he would have played 2 years with the team without being waived or entering free agency. This could be complicated in that the lockout prevented the Knicks from signing him in the offseason, and he will technically be a free agent on December 9th, but I believe if we sign him to a 1 year contract this year he would meet this exception. If we cannot get Williams under an exception we may have to sign him with whatever remains after Paul is signed.
Bill Walker $947,907?
Bill Walker, having been with the team for 3 years at that point, would qualify for the Birds Rights Exception. Any player whose rights have been controlled by a team for 3 years without being waived or entering free agency qualifies for this exception. At the end of the 3 year period, the team can re-sign him and claim the Bird Exception and that player's salary will not count against the salary cap. In addition, all indications are that he would be willing to sign for the league minimum, which would also not count against the cap.
3-4 Minimum Contracts (salary impossible to predict)
As has been stated earlier, a minimum contract is not limited by the cap. The Knicks would most likely have to sign 4 of these players to field a full roster, perhaps 3 depending on whether or not we are able to sign Shawne Williams with an exception and get a first round pick. In order to get a hold of who these players may be let's look at 2012 free agents who may be less attractive on the market in 2012/willing to accept a minimum contract to play for a contender:
Kirk Hinrich
Boris Diaw
Keith Bogans
Baron Davis
Andre Miller
Ben Wallace
James Posey
Chris Kaman
Matt Barnes
Eddie House
Nazr Mohammed
(There is also the option of the Mid-Level Exception which would allow the Knicks to even exceed the Luxury Tax Cap with a $5 million dollar signing) Unless my math is out of whack, can someone please explain why the Knicks would be unable to do this?
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Cutting Through The Spin: The Reality of Chris Paul
Ever since the ending of the lockout, there have been hundreds of articles speculating about whether Chris Paul will end up on the Knicks in 2012. Most of them have been completely and utterly vacant of facts and rational analysis. Many of them leave you more confused after you get done reading. The baffling thing is that the facts are out there, and their analysis does not need to be so heavily based in wild speculation.
There are two realities that need to be expressed up front:
(1) Unless the Hornets give him away, we will not be able to trade for Paul this season.
To illustrate this, lets just look at pure mathematics; Chris Paul is set to make $16,359,802 this year. NBA rules require that the team with the highest sum of salary be no more than 125% of the lower team's sum of salary. Hence, $16,359,802 is 125% of $12,269,852, the minimum salary that the Knicks would have to put up in exchange for Paul. Conversely, $20,449,753 is 125% of $16,359,802, the maximum salary the Knicks could put up in a straight trade for Paul.
If the Hornets do not agree to get Billups in a trade, the entire remaining Knicks roster only adds up to somewhere around $10 million. So, in summation absent trading Chauncey Billups and someone else for Paul (the Hornets wouldn't want this, it's stupid) the entire remaining roster of the Knicks would not add up to enough to satisfy the NBA rules for matching salaries in a trade. If the Hornets did accept a trade for Billups and a couple of bums, (they won't) all Knicks fans would rise in unison and thank the happy heavens. The only real asset that we could add with Billups would be (Fields or Schumpert) and Toney Douglas (maybe we throw in Billy Walker too). I would make that trade 7 days a week and then twice on Sunday. The problem of this of course is that none of these players are signed into 2012 (although Fields and Schumpert will probably be when they get their new contracts this season). Anyway, the likelihood of this happening is beyond slim because nobody wants Chauncey Billups for 1 season, especially not in exchange for Chris Paul. The only way this works is if Chris Paul straight up refuses to sign an extension with any team other than the Knicks. Melo didn't have the balls to do this, and I doubt Paul will either.
(2) The Knicks will have cap space for Paul regardless of what the cap is for 2012.
The cap for the 2011-2012 season will be $58,043,000. This cap will be adjusted for revenue for the 2012-2013 season. Economic projections suggest that the cap for 2012-2013 will rise to around $61,000,000. (Source http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22748484/33070493)
The Knicks only have 2 players guaranteed under contract: Anthony and Stoudemire (this assumes that the Knicks use the Amnesty Clause on Renaldo Balkman, which they will probably do). The rest of the team rounds out to Toney Douglas (Team Option), Imam Schumpert (whatever his contract becomes) and Landry Fields (assuming the Knicks choose to sign him). Therefore, the roster breaks down like this:
2012-2013 Roster
Carmelo Anthony- 19,450,000
Amar'e Stoudemire- 19,948,799
Toney Douglas- 2,067,880 (Option)
Imam Schumpert- 1,444,000 (Second year 17th pick salary scale)
Landry Fields- 1,675,000 (would count as early-bird exception and could go over cap)
______________________________
Total- 40,868,799
This means that under the current cap, the Knicks would have close to $17 million to play with. Under the projected cap the Knicks will have close to $20 million to play with. Under each scenario, there would be 4 players on the roster. That means that after adding Chris Paul, the Knicks would need to have enough money to add 7 more players. None of their rookie signings would count against them, as that is an exception to the cap rule. We should have at least 1 first round pick before the end of the season (we traded ours to Houston, although I can't imagine we don't acquire one before season's end), making it 6 more players needed. In addition, resigning Landry Fields to the 3rd year of his rookie contract would be an exception (early-bird) to the cap, so his signing would not count to cap restrictions (this is assuming the Knicks would be able to sign Paul, putting them at the cap, then exercise Fields Bird-Rights subsequently)**. Meaning there would be 5 more players needed to fill out the roster, under the cap, after Paul is signed. However, if we signed all veteran minimums (which are not restricted by the cap), or league minimums to round out the roster we would be able to pay Paul a decent amount and still field a team.
Under the projected revenue scenario, the Knicks would have $20 million to sign Paul and 5 other players. This seems like a daunting task, however none of the veteran minimums would be restricted by the cap and would allow the Knicks to pay out above the cap. To put in perspective, the Miami Heat had at least 4 players at the veteran minimum last year (Erick Dampier, 35, Juwan Howard, 38, Jamaal Magloire, 33, or Mike Bibby, 33) and I believe they had as many as 6-7 (Carlos Arroyo, Zadrunas Ilgauskus and maybe James Jones). The Knicks would not have to do nearly as much, only needing to sign 4 minimums to field a 12 man roster. Below find minimum salary scale.
Therefore, it appears to me that the Knicks could offer Chris Paul $17 million and still afford a cheap player ($3 million) under the salary cap, and then add 4 more minimums in addition to their roster obligations to Imam Schumpert, Toney Douglas; signing their first round pick and exercising the early-bird exception on Landry Fields.
That would field a roster of:
PG- Paul
SG- Fields
SF- Anthony
PF- Stoudemire
C- Sign Center for $3 Mil
Bench
Imam Schumpert
Toney Douglas
First Round Pick
Min.
Min.
Min.
Min.
If this analysis is accurate, then why are all the prognosticators acting as if this would be such a difficult task? Are we to believe that Paul would not play for New York for a reduced salary because he could get a couple more million a year elsewhere? Even despite the fact he would make it up in endorsement revenue just due to the fact he was in the biggest media market. I don't understand the logic on saying that the Knicks couldn't get this done.
**Not sure if this is allowed, i.e. Knicks might have to exercise Bird-Rights prior to signing Paul.
There are two realities that need to be expressed up front:
(1) Unless the Hornets give him away, we will not be able to trade for Paul this season.
To illustrate this, lets just look at pure mathematics; Chris Paul is set to make $16,359,802 this year. NBA rules require that the team with the highest sum of salary be no more than 125% of the lower team's sum of salary. Hence, $16,359,802 is 125% of $12,269,852, the minimum salary that the Knicks would have to put up in exchange for Paul. Conversely, $20,449,753 is 125% of $16,359,802, the maximum salary the Knicks could put up in a straight trade for Paul.
If the Hornets do not agree to get Billups in a trade, the entire remaining Knicks roster only adds up to somewhere around $10 million. So, in summation absent trading Chauncey Billups and someone else for Paul (the Hornets wouldn't want this, it's stupid) the entire remaining roster of the Knicks would not add up to enough to satisfy the NBA rules for matching salaries in a trade. If the Hornets did accept a trade for Billups and a couple of bums, (they won't) all Knicks fans would rise in unison and thank the happy heavens. The only real asset that we could add with Billups would be (Fields or Schumpert) and Toney Douglas (maybe we throw in Billy Walker too). I would make that trade 7 days a week and then twice on Sunday. The problem of this of course is that none of these players are signed into 2012 (although Fields and Schumpert will probably be when they get their new contracts this season). Anyway, the likelihood of this happening is beyond slim because nobody wants Chauncey Billups for 1 season, especially not in exchange for Chris Paul. The only way this works is if Chris Paul straight up refuses to sign an extension with any team other than the Knicks. Melo didn't have the balls to do this, and I doubt Paul will either.
(2) The Knicks will have cap space for Paul regardless of what the cap is for 2012.
The cap for the 2011-2012 season will be $58,043,000. This cap will be adjusted for revenue for the 2012-2013 season. Economic projections suggest that the cap for 2012-2013 will rise to around $61,000,000. (Source http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22748484/33070493)
The Knicks only have 2 players guaranteed under contract: Anthony and Stoudemire (this assumes that the Knicks use the Amnesty Clause on Renaldo Balkman, which they will probably do). The rest of the team rounds out to Toney Douglas (Team Option), Imam Schumpert (whatever his contract becomes) and Landry Fields (assuming the Knicks choose to sign him). Therefore, the roster breaks down like this:
2012-2013 Roster
Carmelo Anthony- 19,450,000
Amar'e Stoudemire- 19,948,799
Toney Douglas- 2,067,880 (Option)
Imam Schumpert- 1,444,000 (Second year 17th pick salary scale)
______________________________
Total- 40,868,799
This means that under the current cap, the Knicks would have close to $17 million to play with. Under the projected cap the Knicks will have close to $20 million to play with. Under each scenario, there would be 4 players on the roster. That means that after adding Chris Paul, the Knicks would need to have enough money to add 7 more players. None of their rookie signings would count against them, as that is an exception to the cap rule. We should have at least 1 first round pick before the end of the season (we traded ours to Houston, although I can't imagine we don't acquire one before season's end), making it 6 more players needed. In addition, resigning Landry Fields to the 3rd year of his rookie contract would be an exception (early-bird) to the cap, so his signing would not count to cap restrictions (this is assuming the Knicks would be able to sign Paul, putting them at the cap, then exercise Fields Bird-Rights subsequently)**. Meaning there would be 5 more players needed to fill out the roster, under the cap, after Paul is signed. However, if we signed all veteran minimums (which are not restricted by the cap), or league minimums to round out the roster we would be able to pay Paul a decent amount and still field a team.
Under the projected revenue scenario, the Knicks would have $20 million to sign Paul and 5 other players. This seems like a daunting task, however none of the veteran minimums would be restricted by the cap and would allow the Knicks to pay out above the cap. To put in perspective, the Miami Heat had at least 4 players at the veteran minimum last year (Erick Dampier, 35, Juwan Howard, 38, Jamaal Magloire, 33, or Mike Bibby, 33) and I believe they had as many as 6-7 (Carlos Arroyo, Zadrunas Ilgauskus and maybe James Jones). The Knicks would not have to do nearly as much, only needing to sign 4 minimums to field a 12 man roster. Below find minimum salary scale.
Therefore, it appears to me that the Knicks could offer Chris Paul $17 million and still afford a cheap player ($3 million) under the salary cap, and then add 4 more minimums in addition to their roster obligations to Imam Schumpert, Toney Douglas; signing their first round pick and exercising the early-bird exception on Landry Fields.
That would field a roster of:
PG- Paul
SG- Fields
SF- Anthony
PF- Stoudemire
C- Sign Center for $3 Mil
Bench
Imam Schumpert
Toney Douglas
First Round Pick
Min.
Min.
Min.
Min.
If this analysis is accurate, then why are all the prognosticators acting as if this would be such a difficult task? Are we to believe that Paul would not play for New York for a reduced salary because he could get a couple more million a year elsewhere? Even despite the fact he would make it up in endorsement revenue just due to the fact he was in the biggest media market. I don't understand the logic on saying that the Knicks couldn't get this done.
**Not sure if this is allowed, i.e. Knicks might have to exercise Bird-Rights prior to signing Paul.
Free Agent Profile: Jason Collins
Collins is the fifth profile of the not unlikely, but not terribly likely the Knicks will pick up this free agent list. Collins made $854K last season.
Center
Played last season with the Atlanta Hawks.
7'0'' 255lbs Age 32. Career averages of 3.9 PPG and 4.0 RPG. (2.0/2.1)
Collins has the potential to be a good signing despite being utterly useless. While Collins numbers are traditionally low, and his impact on the game tends to be lower from a competitive standpoint, he still finds a way to remain 7 feet tall on a daily basis. If osteoporosis does not set in, allowing Collins to keep his 7 foot stature, he could be an effective addition to a team that will only require him to rebound and pass the ball. The reason he is so low on the probability scale is that despite his uselessness there are plenty of teams that still believe he has an upside and will be willing to overpay for his services. This includes his former team, who knows first hand of his uselessness and still would like to resign him. The Knicks will not be able to compete in this madness market. I would place Collins in a place similar to Dampier: only pull the trigger if you can get him for the minimum and between 1-2 years. This is unlikely, unless Atlanta passes on him, preventing the madness market from driving up his asking price.
Player most likely to be waived to add this player: Jerome Jordan.
Center
Played last season with the Atlanta Hawks.
7'0'' 255lbs Age 32. Career averages of 3.9 PPG and 4.0 RPG. (2.0/2.1)
Collins has the potential to be a good signing despite being utterly useless. While Collins numbers are traditionally low, and his impact on the game tends to be lower from a competitive standpoint, he still finds a way to remain 7 feet tall on a daily basis. If osteoporosis does not set in, allowing Collins to keep his 7 foot stature, he could be an effective addition to a team that will only require him to rebound and pass the ball. The reason he is so low on the probability scale is that despite his uselessness there are plenty of teams that still believe he has an upside and will be willing to overpay for his services. This includes his former team, who knows first hand of his uselessness and still would like to resign him. The Knicks will not be able to compete in this madness market. I would place Collins in a place similar to Dampier: only pull the trigger if you can get him for the minimum and between 1-2 years. This is unlikely, unless Atlanta passes on him, preventing the madness market from driving up his asking price.
Player most likely to be waived to add this player: Jerome Jordan.
Free Agent Profile: Dan Gadzuric
Gadzuric is the fourth profile of the not unlikely, but not terribly likely the Knicks will pick up this free agent list. Gadzuric made $7.2 million last season.
Center
Played last season with the New Jersey Nets.
6'11'' 240lbs Age 33. Career averages of 4.7 PPG and 4.4 RPG. (2.8/3.2)
This profile may be irrelevant considering the fact that he signed a contract to play in China. However, assuming he is able to get an out clause in his Chinese deal, Gadzuric would be a decent option for the Knicks. I won't waste much time considering his contractual obligations, but in summary: Gadzuric is an unimpressive center that can provide a body on the inside for rebounding and may be willing to accept a 1 year minimum deal for the promise of increased playing time and a chance to reestablish himself in the NBA. He literally can do nothing well, but he is a mediocre rebounder. The Knicks could use him as an insurance policy for Ronny Turiaf, stealing minutes from the old man's back. Other than that, don't hold your breath and if we do end up signing him, don't go jumping for joy.
Player most likely to be waived to add this player: Jerome Jordan
Center
Played last season with the New Jersey Nets.
6'11'' 240lbs Age 33. Career averages of 4.7 PPG and 4.4 RPG. (2.8/3.2)
This profile may be irrelevant considering the fact that he signed a contract to play in China. However, assuming he is able to get an out clause in his Chinese deal, Gadzuric would be a decent option for the Knicks. I won't waste much time considering his contractual obligations, but in summary: Gadzuric is an unimpressive center that can provide a body on the inside for rebounding and may be willing to accept a 1 year minimum deal for the promise of increased playing time and a chance to reestablish himself in the NBA. He literally can do nothing well, but he is a mediocre rebounder. The Knicks could use him as an insurance policy for Ronny Turiaf, stealing minutes from the old man's back. Other than that, don't hold your breath and if we do end up signing him, don't go jumping for joy.
Player most likely to be waived to add this player: Jerome Jordan
Free Agent Profile: Joel Przybilla
Przybilla is the third profile of the not unlikely, but not terribly likely the Knicks will pick up this free agent list. Przybilla made $7.4 million last season.
Center
Played last season with the Charlotte Bobcats.
7'1'' 245lbs Age 32. Career averages of 4.0 PPG and 6.3 RPG. (1.8/4)
If you can get past the inexplicable placement of the Z before the Y in his last name, Przybilla provides the most talent upside of anyone on the list. However, he is also the player most likely to demand more money on this list. Przybilla received over $7 million and last season and is not on his last legs. Despite his injury history, Przybilla has continuously had teams coveting his services. In fact, the Knicks tried to make an in-season trade for him last year. Unless he has a strong yearning to play in New York, I don't see why Przybilla would take a pay cut to come play for the Bockers. Especially, since he has openly stated that he wants to play for Milwaukee where his family resides. Then again, after being traded to the Bobcats midseason last year, Przybilla started 0 of the 9 games he was in Charlotte. The Knicks would be able to promise Przybilla significant playing time and this could appeal to a player trying to reestablish himself as a contributor in the NBA.
In any event, assuming we are able to get Przybilla to lower his asking price, the Knicks will get a big body with a decent offensive glass game. He does not bang on the boards like the previous two players profiled, but Przybilla has a strong reputation as a player who just flat out gets boards and blocks when he gets an opportunity to get on the court. In particular, his 7'1'' frame will provide much needed intimidation in the post area, circa the Marcus Camby days, to compensate for the poor team perimeter defense.
The big knock on him is that he is just coming off his second knee surgery and does not have the same athleticism he once had. This could be a gift or a curse for the Knicks. The gift side would be that his diminished upside will make him lower his asking price, allowing the Knicks to acquire him without sacrificing their long term goals. The curse side could be that he is so far gone from his productive days that he cannot even handle the limited role of cleaning up the boards and passing to Melo that will be required of him in a Knicks uniform. Overall, the likelihood of signing Przybilla is entirely dependent on other teams desire to sign him. If their is any sort of competition on that front, upping his asking price, the Knicks will pass on him and move on to one of their other options (limited as they may be).
Player most likely to be waived for him to replace: Jerome Jordan.
Center
Played last season with the Charlotte Bobcats.
7'1'' 245lbs Age 32. Career averages of 4.0 PPG and 6.3 RPG. (1.8/4)
If you can get past the inexplicable placement of the Z before the Y in his last name, Przybilla provides the most talent upside of anyone on the list. However, he is also the player most likely to demand more money on this list. Przybilla received over $7 million and last season and is not on his last legs. Despite his injury history, Przybilla has continuously had teams coveting his services. In fact, the Knicks tried to make an in-season trade for him last year. Unless he has a strong yearning to play in New York, I don't see why Przybilla would take a pay cut to come play for the Bockers. Especially, since he has openly stated that he wants to play for Milwaukee where his family resides. Then again, after being traded to the Bobcats midseason last year, Przybilla started 0 of the 9 games he was in Charlotte. The Knicks would be able to promise Przybilla significant playing time and this could appeal to a player trying to reestablish himself as a contributor in the NBA.
In any event, assuming we are able to get Przybilla to lower his asking price, the Knicks will get a big body with a decent offensive glass game. He does not bang on the boards like the previous two players profiled, but Przybilla has a strong reputation as a player who just flat out gets boards and blocks when he gets an opportunity to get on the court. In particular, his 7'1'' frame will provide much needed intimidation in the post area, circa the Marcus Camby days, to compensate for the poor team perimeter defense.
The big knock on him is that he is just coming off his second knee surgery and does not have the same athleticism he once had. This could be a gift or a curse for the Knicks. The gift side would be that his diminished upside will make him lower his asking price, allowing the Knicks to acquire him without sacrificing their long term goals. The curse side could be that he is so far gone from his productive days that he cannot even handle the limited role of cleaning up the boards and passing to Melo that will be required of him in a Knicks uniform. Overall, the likelihood of signing Przybilla is entirely dependent on other teams desire to sign him. If their is any sort of competition on that front, upping his asking price, the Knicks will pass on him and move on to one of their other options (limited as they may be).
Player most likely to be waived for him to replace: Jerome Jordan.
Free Agent Profile: Erick Dampier
Dampier is the second profile of the not unlikely, but not terribly likely the Knicks will pick up this free agent list. Dampier made $713K last season.
Center
Played last season with the Miami Heat.
6'11'' 265lbs Age 34. Career averages of 7.5 PPG and 7.2 RPG. (2.5/3.5)
Dampier is another tough minded defensive stopper. He is known for crowding the basket and getting the occassional block. He can also finish around the paint and gave the Knicks some fits in their meetings last season. Dampier has said he is not retiring and is estranged from the Heat because he did not log a single minute is last year's playoffs. While Dampier will not impress anyone with his offensive prowess, he is a solid option for a defensive guy. In addition, he will not be able to ask for anything other than the veteran's minimum and would most likely accept a 1 year deal. His obvious low upside, in this instance, is outweighed by the fact that he will be cheap and will fit exactly into the future plans of the New York Knicks trying to free up salary for 2012. I would pull the trigger on this guy if we could get him on a 1 year deal for the minimum. File this under dollar store purchase.
The reason he doesn't fall under the likely to sign with us list, is Dampier has stated he only wants to play for a contender. It is not clear whether he views New York as such. We may be able to woo him with the fact that he will be a de facto starter in our line-up taking the lion's share of the minutes in combination with Ronny Turiaf. Also, come the beginning of the season he may find out that no one else wants him.
Player most likely to be waived for him to replace: Jerome Jordan.
Center
Played last season with the Miami Heat.
6'11'' 265lbs Age 34. Career averages of 7.5 PPG and 7.2 RPG. (2.5/3.5)
Dampier is another tough minded defensive stopper. He is known for crowding the basket and getting the occassional block. He can also finish around the paint and gave the Knicks some fits in their meetings last season. Dampier has said he is not retiring and is estranged from the Heat because he did not log a single minute is last year's playoffs. While Dampier will not impress anyone with his offensive prowess, he is a solid option for a defensive guy. In addition, he will not be able to ask for anything other than the veteran's minimum and would most likely accept a 1 year deal. His obvious low upside, in this instance, is outweighed by the fact that he will be cheap and will fit exactly into the future plans of the New York Knicks trying to free up salary for 2012. I would pull the trigger on this guy if we could get him on a 1 year deal for the minimum. File this under dollar store purchase.
The reason he doesn't fall under the likely to sign with us list, is Dampier has stated he only wants to play for a contender. It is not clear whether he views New York as such. We may be able to woo him with the fact that he will be a de facto starter in our line-up taking the lion's share of the minutes in combination with Ronny Turiaf. Also, come the beginning of the season he may find out that no one else wants him.
Player most likely to be waived for him to replace: Jerome Jordan.
Free Agent Profile: Jeff Foster
Foster is the first profile of the not unlikely, but not terribly likely the Knicks will pick up this free agent list. Foster made $6.6 million last season.
Center
Played last season with the Indiana Pacers.
6'11'' 250lbs Age 34. Career averages of 4.9 PPG and 6.9 RPG. (3.3/6.3)
Foster is well known for being a tough minded defensive player. He is not afraid to throw an elbow or straight drop somebody on a fast break. He is the perfect fit for this New York team. Foster is a defensive player that does not need to see offensive production to be happy, has playoff experience and has a few years of Eastern Conference play under his belt. He is also, somewhat* athletic and can defend the pick and roll. As far as skill set, he is a very decent option and fills the void.
He does have a history of injury however: he only played 26 games last year. However, given that on this Knicks roster he will not be asked to do anything more than grab rebounds and defend, he should be able to manage. Hopefully, giving him rest with Turiaf picking up minutes can provide an environment where Foster could thrive.
Foster is near the twighlight of his career so his asking price will be low, however given that he may not have another free agency in him, his contract length may be longer than the Knicks want to pay for him. If we can get Foster to agree to play somewhere at or near the veteran's minimum for 3 years, I would jump on it. He is a guy that can fit the missing piece of big man/defensive puzzle for the Knicks for the next 2-3 years and will be an invaluable piece should we pick up a big name free agent in 2012. Foster could prove to be more than just a filler and might be worth placing him in the 2 year Championship plan (i.e. get Paul next year and build a cheap team around the 3 to win a ring in 2 years).
*not really.
Player most likely to be waived for him to replace: Jerome Jordan.
Center
Played last season with the Indiana Pacers.
6'11'' 250lbs Age 34. Career averages of 4.9 PPG and 6.9 RPG. (3.3/6.3)
Foster is well known for being a tough minded defensive player. He is not afraid to throw an elbow or straight drop somebody on a fast break. He is the perfect fit for this New York team. Foster is a defensive player that does not need to see offensive production to be happy, has playoff experience and has a few years of Eastern Conference play under his belt. He is also, somewhat* athletic and can defend the pick and roll. As far as skill set, he is a very decent option and fills the void.
He does have a history of injury however: he only played 26 games last year. However, given that on this Knicks roster he will not be asked to do anything more than grab rebounds and defend, he should be able to manage. Hopefully, giving him rest with Turiaf picking up minutes can provide an environment where Foster could thrive.
Foster is near the twighlight of his career so his asking price will be low, however given that he may not have another free agency in him, his contract length may be longer than the Knicks want to pay for him. If we can get Foster to agree to play somewhere at or near the veteran's minimum for 3 years, I would jump on it. He is a guy that can fit the missing piece of big man/defensive puzzle for the Knicks for the next 2-3 years and will be an invaluable piece should we pick up a big name free agent in 2012. Foster could prove to be more than just a filler and might be worth placing him in the 2 year Championship plan (i.e. get Paul next year and build a cheap team around the 3 to win a ring in 2 years).
*not really.
Player most likely to be waived for him to replace: Jerome Jordan.
Knicks 2011 Free Agents: Unlikely, But Not Out of Question
I have already profiled a number of potential free agent signings for the Knicks that are likely fits for reasons of price and contract length (players will take minimum and have no leverage to require longer contracts). These free agents (Thomas, Brown, Ratliff...etc.) are the most likely to end up on the Knicks roster this year considering the various concerns of the New York front office.
However, there are other free agents out there that are not highly likely to take the pay/contract length cuts required to wear orange and blue, yet are still feasible targets. In looking for a center, there are 5 players that directly fit into this non-pipe dream/not sure thing category. I list them here in order of personal preference:
1. Jeff Foster
2. Erick Dampier
3. Joel Przybilla
4. Dan Gadzuric
5. Jason Collins
Given that the Knicks also have a big need for a back-up point guard, we need to also look at the top 5 free agent point guards that may be a little bit of a reach, but not out the question for the Knicks. It must be mentioned that this class of guards is painfully bad. Many of them on this list are actually less preferable to just resigning Anthony Carter. However, I have listed them in order of personal preference:
1. T.J. Ford
2. Mike Bibby
3. Carlos Arroyo
4. Sebastian Telfair
5. Earl Watson
I will be profiling each of these players as we slowly head to the December 9th, training camp start date.
However, there are other free agents out there that are not highly likely to take the pay/contract length cuts required to wear orange and blue, yet are still feasible targets. In looking for a center, there are 5 players that directly fit into this non-pipe dream/not sure thing category. I list them here in order of personal preference:
1. Jeff Foster
2. Erick Dampier
3. Joel Przybilla
4. Dan Gadzuric
5. Jason Collins
Given that the Knicks also have a big need for a back-up point guard, we need to also look at the top 5 free agent point guards that may be a little bit of a reach, but not out the question for the Knicks. It must be mentioned that this class of guards is painfully bad. Many of them on this list are actually less preferable to just resigning Anthony Carter. However, I have listed them in order of personal preference:
1. T.J. Ford
2. Mike Bibby
3. Carlos Arroyo
4. Sebastian Telfair
5. Earl Watson
I will be profiling each of these players as we slowly head to the December 9th, training camp start date.
Monday, November 28, 2011
Free Agency Reality for the 2011-2012 Season
There are many out there who believe that the Knicks will score a serious free agent in the next couple of weeks to pad a struggling Knicks roster. We are lacking depth at both point guard and center and there have been several names that have been tossed out that has had eager New York fans writhing in excitement. These names are pipe dreams and there are three main reasons why we will never see them on a Knicks roster:
(1) The stars on the list (below), aka the ones we actually want, would not accept the veteran's minimum (currently around 1.2 million) or mid-level exception and that is the only possible way the Knicks could afford them (they need an exception to sign a new player since they are already over the salary cap and outside of players formerly on the roster these are basically the only exceptions that apply).
(2) Any restricted free agent can have his offer matched by his current team and the Knicks cannot win any bidding war because of the money they have stuck in other players.
(3) They could not sign one of the players on the list for a one year contract because these players will be seeking a payday and security, and the Knicks would need a 1-2 year contract in order to sign Chris Paul or any other marquee players (Dwight Howard) they are coveting from the class of 2012.
Here are the names of free agents we have no chance of getting, in order of my level of excitement:
Nene Hilario
Andre Jordan (restricted)
Marc Gasol (restricted)
Jamal Crawford
Tyson Chandler
Samuel Dalembert
J.J. Barea
Aaron Brooks (restricted)
Rodney Stuckey (restricted)
(1) The stars on the list (below), aka the ones we actually want, would not accept the veteran's minimum (currently around 1.2 million) or mid-level exception and that is the only possible way the Knicks could afford them (they need an exception to sign a new player since they are already over the salary cap and outside of players formerly on the roster these are basically the only exceptions that apply).
(2) Any restricted free agent can have his offer matched by his current team and the Knicks cannot win any bidding war because of the money they have stuck in other players.
(3) They could not sign one of the players on the list for a one year contract because these players will be seeking a payday and security, and the Knicks would need a 1-2 year contract in order to sign Chris Paul or any other marquee players (Dwight Howard) they are coveting from the class of 2012.
Here are the names of free agents we have no chance of getting, in order of my level of excitement:
Nene Hilario
Andre Jordan (restricted)
Marc Gasol (restricted)
Jamal Crawford
Tyson Chandler
Samuel Dalembert
J.J. Barea
Aaron Brooks (restricted)
Rodney Stuckey (restricted)
2011-2012 Pre-Preview: New York Knicks
NBA Salary Cap 2011-2012: $58,044,000
(Luxury Cap: $70,307,000)
NEW YORK KNICKS 2011-2012
Guaranteed Contracts
Carmelo Anthony ($18,518,574)
Amar'e Stoudemire ($18,217,705)
Chauncey Billups ($14,200,000)
Ronny Turiaf ($4,360,000)
Renaldo Balkman ($1,675,000)
Toney Douglas ($1,145,640)
Bill Walker ($916,000)
Salary: $59,032,919
Non-Guaranteed Contracts
Landry Fields ($788,872)
Andy Rautins ($788,872)
Salary if Both Picked Up: ($60,610,763)
Salary if Rautins is Waived: ($59,821,791)
Unclaimed Contracts
Imam Schumpert* ($1,343,300)
(Unclear, but 17th pick is set to earn $1,343,300 in 2011-2012)
Josh Harrelson*
Jerome Jordan ($473,604)
(NBA minimum was $473,604 last year, and JJ was drafted 44th in 2010 and has no NBA years of experience)
Shawne Williams ($915,852)
(Unclear, assuming he accepts the league minimum, the minimum for a player with 4 years experience last year was $915,852)
Shelden Williams
Anthony Carter
Derrick Brown
*2011 Draft Picks
Salary After Signings: $62,554,547
11 PLAYERS WITH 1-4 ROSTER SPOTS TO FILL
Potential Free Agents
Kurt Thomas ($1,200,000)
(Assuming he would agree to the veteran's minimum, which would be allowed as an exception even though we would be over the cap)
Theo Ratliff
Kwame Brown
Tony Battie
Aaron Gray
Salary After Free Agency: $63,754,547
---------------------------------------------------
This line-up is conspicuously devoid of back up point guards. My hope is that we sign a free agent back-up and either waive Rautins or just keep him at the back of the bench. A few options might be bringing back Anthony Carter for a year along with Shelden Williams to provide some guard and big man depth. However, without knowing what is going to happen during free agency, I will present my limited hypothetical line-up which includes only those players that I feel must be picked up this year.
Hypothetical Lineup
Starters
Point Guard: Chauncey Billups
Shooting Guard: Landry Fields
Small Forward: Carmelo Anthony
Power Forward: Amar'e Stoudemire
Center: Jerome Jordan (Ronny Turiaf will not play this whole season)
Bench
6th Man: Shawne Williams
Toney Douglas
Ronny Turiaf/Kurt Thomas
Imam Schumpert/Billy Walker
Never See The Floor
Renaldo Balkman
Andy Rautins (if not waived)
(Luxury Cap: $70,307,000)
NEW YORK KNICKS 2011-2012
Guaranteed Contracts
Carmelo Anthony ($18,518,574)
Amar'e Stoudemire ($18,217,705)
Chauncey Billups ($14,200,000)
Ronny Turiaf ($4,360,000)
Renaldo Balkman ($1,675,000)
Toney Douglas ($1,145,640)
Bill Walker ($916,000)
Salary: $59,032,919
Non-Guaranteed Contracts
Landry Fields ($788,872)
Salary if Rautins is Waived: ($59,821,791)
Unclaimed Contracts
Imam Schumpert* ($1,343,300)
(Unclear, but 17th pick is set to earn $1,343,300 in 2011-2012)
Jerome Jordan ($473,604)
(NBA minimum was $473,604 last year, and JJ was drafted 44th in 2010 and has no NBA years of experience)
Shawne Williams ($915,852)
(Unclear, assuming he accepts the league minimum, the minimum for a player with 4 years experience last year was $915,852)
Anthony Carter
Derrick Brown
*2011 Draft Picks
Salary After Signings: $62,554,547
11 PLAYERS WITH 1-4 ROSTER SPOTS TO FILL
Potential Free Agents
Kurt Thomas ($1,200,000)
(Assuming he would agree to the veteran's minimum, which would be allowed as an exception even though we would be over the cap)
Aaron Gray
Salary After Free Agency: $63,754,547
---------------------------------------------------
This line-up is conspicuously devoid of back up point guards. My hope is that we sign a free agent back-up and either waive Rautins or just keep him at the back of the bench. A few options might be bringing back Anthony Carter for a year along with Shelden Williams to provide some guard and big man depth. However, without knowing what is going to happen during free agency, I will present my limited hypothetical line-up which includes only those players that I feel must be picked up this year.
Hypothetical Lineup
Starters
Point Guard: Chauncey Billups
Shooting Guard: Landry Fields
Small Forward: Carmelo Anthony
Power Forward: Amar'e Stoudemire
Center: Jerome Jordan (Ronny Turiaf will not play this whole season)
Bench
6th Man: Shawne Williams
Toney Douglas
Ronny Turiaf/Kurt Thomas
Imam Schumpert/Billy Walker
Never See The Floor
Renaldo Balkman
Andy Rautins (if not waived)
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