Monday, December 5, 2011

Cutting Through the Spin: The Reality of Chris Paul 4

One of the biggest unanswered questions of this pre-season has been if the Knicks blatantly choose to avoid going after Chris Paul, what kind of moves could they make and what team could they field? Thats exactly what I would like to look at today.

There are several intriguing names that have come up in the Knicks stratosphere that they could go after if they are not handcuffed with the 1 year contract philosophy that must be adopted in order to be in the running for Paul's services in 2012. The most intriguing name (in my opinion) is our old boy Ill Will (Wilson Chandler). Chandler's situation is a unique and interesting one. He signed a 1 year deal in China that he expects to honor. The Chinese season ends in February 2012, allowing time for Chandler to sign with an NBA team before the season ends (assumedly before the deadline, since it will most likely be pushed back). Chandler is a restricted free agent with Denver (giving them the ability to match any offer), making his acquisition costly in a bidding war. However, if his Chinese team makes the playoffs he may not be able to sign with an NBA team this year, making him an unrestricted free agent in 2012. Ill Will has repeatedly expressed a desire to come back to New York. I love this guy and if you look at his numbers in China (recently had a 44 point 22 rebound game) the Knicks would immediately become dangerous with him on the roster. Keep your ears open in February for the developments of how he re-enters the NBA, since the method seriously affects the Knicks ability to acquire him.

Another intriguing 2012 free agent option is...dare I say it...Elton Brand. I seethe when I hear his name, however he is a dangerous player when he is on, and when Melo or Stoudemire draw double teams, his jumper could be deadly. This obviously all depends on whether Brand is amnestied by the Sixers this year. In addition, while Brand could be a good fit for the Knicks, his asking price with the Sixers is way too high. I think that everyone knows today that Brand is not worth half the contract that he received from the Sixers. If Brand is able to figure that out by 2012, the Knicks might be able to pick him up on the (relatively) cheap and use him as a good bench/insurance for Amar'e player on the roster.

Also, by not going after Chris Paul the Knicks do not have to worry so much about having $13-$17 million in cap space next year and can make some moves after December 9th. The roster moves that would be most important would be finding a big man to support Amar'e from the blows in the paint and bolster the weak rebounding and defense of the current Knicks roster. Without being handcuffed by the cap I believe these names become part of the Knicks stratosphere:

Samuel Dalembert
Jeff Foster

Hence, if they use some of the money they expect to pay Paul on a combination of, perhaps, Dalembert (MLE) and Wilson Chandler (2012) we would be looking at a very dangerous team. Hollinger predicts there will be $13 million available, so my analysis will proceed given this number. Given my analysis of what players we could take on through exceptions, lets us look at a purely hypothetical roster:

Samuel Dalembert (5 mil MLE in 2011)
Wilson Chandler   (6-7 mil signing in 2012)
Andre Miller         (2-3 mil signing in 2012)

PG: Andre Miller
SG: Landry Fields
SF: Carmelo Anthony
PF: Amar'e Stoudemire
C: Samuel Dalembert

6: Wilson Chandler (sixth man of year, also takes time off Stoudemire's back)
7: Toney Douglas
8: Imam Schumpert
9: Jerome Jordan
10: Shawne Williams
11: Bill Walker
12: Andy Rautins

Better analysis to come when we see what initial moves the Knicks make after the free agent signing period begins.

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