One of the biggest unanswered questions of this pre-season has been if the Knicks blatantly choose to avoid going after Chris Paul, what kind of moves could they make and what team could they field? Thats exactly what I would like to look at today.
There are several intriguing names that have come up in the Knicks stratosphere that they could go after if they are not handcuffed with the 1 year contract philosophy that must be adopted in order to be in the running for Paul's services in 2012. The most intriguing name (in my opinion) is our old boy Ill Will (Wilson Chandler). Chandler's situation is a unique and interesting one. He signed a 1 year deal in China that he expects to honor. The Chinese season ends in February 2012, allowing time for Chandler to sign with an NBA team before the season ends (assumedly before the deadline, since it will most likely be pushed back). Chandler is a restricted free agent with Denver (giving them the ability to match any offer), making his acquisition costly in a bidding war. However, if his Chinese team makes the playoffs he may not be able to sign with an NBA team this year, making him an unrestricted free agent in 2012. Ill Will has repeatedly expressed a desire to come back to New York. I love this guy and if you look at his numbers in China (recently had a 44 point 22 rebound game) the Knicks would immediately become dangerous with him on the roster. Keep your ears open in February for the developments of how he re-enters the NBA, since the method seriously affects the Knicks ability to acquire him.
Another intriguing 2012 free agent option is...dare I say it...Elton Brand. I seethe when I hear his name, however he is a dangerous player when he is on, and when Melo or Stoudemire draw double teams, his jumper could be deadly. This obviously all depends on whether Brand is amnestied by the Sixers this year. In addition, while Brand could be a good fit for the Knicks, his asking price with the Sixers is way too high. I think that everyone knows today that Brand is not worth half the contract that he received from the Sixers. If Brand is able to figure that out by 2012, the Knicks might be able to pick him up on the (relatively) cheap and use him as a good bench/insurance for Amar'e player on the roster.
Also, by not going after Chris Paul the Knicks do not have to worry so much about having $13-$17 million in cap space next year and can make some moves after December 9th. The roster moves that would be most important would be finding a big man to support Amar'e from the blows in the paint and bolster the weak rebounding and defense of the current Knicks roster. Without being handcuffed by the cap I believe these names become part of the Knicks stratosphere:
Samuel Dalembert
Jeff Foster
Hence, if they use some of the money they expect to pay Paul on a combination of, perhaps, Dalembert (MLE) and Wilson Chandler (2012) we would be looking at a very dangerous team. Hollinger predicts there will be $13 million available, so my analysis will proceed given this number. Given my analysis of what players we could take on through exceptions, lets us look at a purely hypothetical roster:
Samuel Dalembert (5 mil MLE in 2011)
Wilson Chandler (6-7 mil signing in 2012)
Andre Miller (2-3 mil signing in 2012)
PG: Andre Miller
SG: Landry Fields
SF: Carmelo Anthony
PF: Amar'e Stoudemire
C: Samuel Dalembert
6: Wilson Chandler (sixth man of year, also takes time off Stoudemire's back)
7: Toney Douglas
8: Imam Schumpert
9: Jerome Jordan
10: Shawne Williams
11: Bill Walker
12: Andy Rautins
Better analysis to come when we see what initial moves the Knicks make after the free agent signing period begins.
Showing posts with label Chris Paul. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Chris Paul. Show all posts
Monday, December 5, 2011
Thursday, December 1, 2011
Cutting Through The Spin: The Reality of Chris Paul 3
The news stories today are that Chris Paul has demanded, through an intermediary, to be traded to the Knicks. The initial gasps of columnists were, of course, the Knicks have nothing to trade! They have no assets! While these claims are all technically true, they are besides the point. As I have outlined before, the only way a trade gets done with the Knicks and the Hornets is if Paul unequivocally states that he will not sign with anyone else (he will not do this, it will hurt his brand and Paul is not known for taking daring moves). In such a scenario, New Orleans hand will be forced and the Knicks lack of tradable assets will mean very little.
However, let us just contemplate what a sign and trade might look like between the Knicks and Hornets if there was a desire to exchange equivalent assets.*
First, we must look at the relevant rule that limits how much money the Knicks can take on, i.e. can they go well over the cap? The relevant rule in question states:
"Teams above the cap (which the Knicks are) cannot acquire more than 125% plus $100,000 of the salary they trade away. There is no lower limit—teams may divest themselves of as much salary as they wish in a trade." (Source wikipedia)
What this means is that the Knicks, if they were trading for Paul alone ($16,359,805), could not give away any less than $13,187,844 in return (125% + $100,000). This is relevant, because the Hornets are going to look to divest themselves of salary most likely (give away more salary than they take on) because if this trade happens, you can be sure they will be divesting themselves of more talent and thus they need to make it good for them in other ways. It is important to note that Chauncey Billups, a guaranteed part of any trade, makes more than this by himself. So, in order to divest themselves of the maximum amount of money, New Orleans is going to look to also get rid of a 2+ year contract of a player who is not a regular contributor.
The only one on their roster that currently fits that description is Quincy Poindexter. He only makes 1.1 million a year, but he is the only other Hornet with 2+ years left on his contract other than Trevor Ariza. I would assume that Ariza would be part of the Hornets future, but I will entertain a trade with him as well in this analysis. On the Knicks side, you would have to assume that the Hornets will go after the Knicks only remaining tradable assets: Landry Fields and Toney Douglas.
First Potential Trade
Chris Paul Chauncey Billups
Quincy Poindexter Landry Fields
Toney Douglas
$17,513,605 $16,134,512
This trade fits into the rule and would be successful. From a talent perspective it is not as lopsided as one would think. Poindexter is a throw in, but for the 2011-2012 season the gap between Chauncey Billups and Chris Paul is diluted somewhat by the addition of Fields and Douglas. One would also assume that future draft picks and cash consideration would be included in this trade.
Second Potential Trade
Chris Paul Chauncey Billups
Trevor Ariza Landry Fields
Toney Douglas
Ronny Turiaf
Renaldo Balkman
$23,150,445 $22,439,512
While this trade works, according to the rules, New Orleans fails to shed any salary and really loses out on a talent standpoint. This trade would never happen, even with Paul's insistence on only signing an extension with the Knicks.
If one would have to guess, the only scenario possible is that Paul leverages New Orleans to pull the trigger on trade #1. Outside of that, there would have to be a 3rd team to make this happen. Given the vast possibilites of a 3rd team at this point, I will not even discuss any of those possibilities.
*This analysis will of course change once the Knicks begin signing free agents after December 9th this year, thus giving them more assets.
However, let us just contemplate what a sign and trade might look like between the Knicks and Hornets if there was a desire to exchange equivalent assets.*
First, we must look at the relevant rule that limits how much money the Knicks can take on, i.e. can they go well over the cap? The relevant rule in question states:
"Teams above the cap (which the Knicks are) cannot acquire more than 125% plus $100,000 of the salary they trade away. There is no lower limit—teams may divest themselves of as much salary as they wish in a trade." (Source wikipedia)
What this means is that the Knicks, if they were trading for Paul alone ($16,359,805), could not give away any less than $13,187,844 in return (125% + $100,000). This is relevant, because the Hornets are going to look to divest themselves of salary most likely (give away more salary than they take on) because if this trade happens, you can be sure they will be divesting themselves of more talent and thus they need to make it good for them in other ways. It is important to note that Chauncey Billups, a guaranteed part of any trade, makes more than this by himself. So, in order to divest themselves of the maximum amount of money, New Orleans is going to look to also get rid of a 2+ year contract of a player who is not a regular contributor.
The only one on their roster that currently fits that description is Quincy Poindexter. He only makes 1.1 million a year, but he is the only other Hornet with 2+ years left on his contract other than Trevor Ariza. I would assume that Ariza would be part of the Hornets future, but I will entertain a trade with him as well in this analysis. On the Knicks side, you would have to assume that the Hornets will go after the Knicks only remaining tradable assets: Landry Fields and Toney Douglas.
First Potential Trade
Chris Paul Chauncey Billups
Quincy Poindexter Landry Fields
Toney Douglas
$17,513,605 $16,134,512
This trade fits into the rule and would be successful. From a talent perspective it is not as lopsided as one would think. Poindexter is a throw in, but for the 2011-2012 season the gap between Chauncey Billups and Chris Paul is diluted somewhat by the addition of Fields and Douglas. One would also assume that future draft picks and cash consideration would be included in this trade.
Second Potential Trade
Chris Paul Chauncey Billups
Trevor Ariza Landry Fields
Toney Douglas
Ronny Turiaf
Renaldo Balkman
$23,150,445 $22,439,512
While this trade works, according to the rules, New Orleans fails to shed any salary and really loses out on a talent standpoint. This trade would never happen, even with Paul's insistence on only signing an extension with the Knicks.
If one would have to guess, the only scenario possible is that Paul leverages New Orleans to pull the trigger on trade #1. Outside of that, there would have to be a 3rd team to make this happen. Given the vast possibilites of a 3rd team at this point, I will not even discuss any of those possibilities.
*This analysis will of course change once the Knicks begin signing free agents after December 9th this year, thus giving them more assets.
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Cutting Through the Spin: The Reality of Chris Paul 2
I wanted to get more in depth with the options that the Knicks have in pursuing Chris Paul. For instance, I noted that the Knicks would most likely have to sign 4 minimum contracts to fill the roster; who could these people be? Which salaries would be limited by the cap? Which ones would fit into an exception? And why?
A basic rule that needs to be stated is that all NBA teams are limited by a salary cap. This means that any contract that causes the team to exceed the salary cap (currently at $58,043,000) will be void. However, in the NBA, unlike the NHL, the salary cap is a soft cap. It is called soft because there are several exceptions that can apply which will allow certain contracts to exceed the cap without becoming void. An example of exceptions are Bird's Rights, Rookie Contracts, Non-Bird Rights and Mid-Level Exceptions. If a player signs a contract with a team that puts them over the salary cap, but fits into one of these exceptions, his contract will not be void and that team will be allowed to exceed the cap.
In addition, there is a provision called the Amnesty Clause which allows a team to waive a player under contract without that player's salary counting against the salary cap or luxury tax. You can only amnesty one player during the duration of the new CBA. This basically means that for cap calculating purposes you can basically erase that player from the numbers. (The Amnesty Clause of the previous CBA, still counted against the cap, while did not count towards luxury tax penalties. However, indications are that the new CBA's Amnesty Clause will not count against the cap)
Renaldo Balkman is set to make $1,675,000 for the 2012-2013 season. All reports suggest that he will be amnestied, so his salary will not count towards the Knicks cap.
2012-2013 Salaries (w/o exceptions)
Amar'e Stoudemire $19,450,000
Carmelo Anthony $19,948,799
Imam Schumpert $1,444,000 (can be up to 120% of this number which would be $1,732,800)
Toney Douglas (TO) $2,067,880 (can not excercise Bird Rights exception b/c he has team option)
Total Sum: $42,910,679
2012-2013 Cap: $61,000,000
Difference: $18,089,321
Max Salary NBA in first year (7 yr Player): $16,324,500
(Source http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q11)
Difference: $1,564,821
This analysis will thus proceed from the idea that Paul will take a max contract. Unless my math is wrong, this seems entirely possible.
2012-2013 Salaries (not limited by cap)
Landry Fields $1,675,000? (min. salary would be $916,100 and could not exceed 175%)
The exception that would apply to Landry Fields would be the Early Bird Rights. Early Bird Rights apply to players who have spent at least 2 years with their current team without entering free agency or being waived. Fields will just have finished his 2nd year of his rookie contract and would qualify for the Early Bird Exception in his 3rd year (2012-2013 season). This, of course, assumes that Fields does not get a big head and try to go out into free agency and try to get his big pay day.
Draft Pick $1,350,000? (assuming Rd. 1 Pk. 20)
We do not currently have a draft pick in 2012, however one of the major goals for this season will be to acquire one. If the Knicks are truly serious about getting Chris Paul, they will need to sign a rookie in 2012, because that salary will not be limited by the cap. The Rookie signing exception allows a team to sign their first round draft pick without being limited by the cap. I will not speculate as to who could be traded to collect a draft pick.
Shawne Williams? $916,100? (salary would not be able to exceed 175% of previous salary
Depending on what the Knicks do with his contract this year, Shawne Williams could qualify for the Earl Bird Exception, as he would have played 2 years with the team without being waived or entering free agency. This could be complicated in that the lockout prevented the Knicks from signing him in the offseason, and he will technically be a free agent on December 9th, but I believe if we sign him to a 1 year contract this year he would meet this exception. If we cannot get Williams under an exception we may have to sign him with whatever remains after Paul is signed.
Bill Walker $947,907?
Bill Walker, having been with the team for 3 years at that point, would qualify for the Birds Rights Exception. Any player whose rights have been controlled by a team for 3 years without being waived or entering free agency qualifies for this exception. At the end of the 3 year period, the team can re-sign him and claim the Bird Exception and that player's salary will not count against the salary cap. In addition, all indications are that he would be willing to sign for the league minimum, which would also not count against the cap.
3-4 Minimum Contracts (salary impossible to predict)
As has been stated earlier, a minimum contract is not limited by the cap. The Knicks would most likely have to sign 4 of these players to field a full roster, perhaps 3 depending on whether or not we are able to sign Shawne Williams with an exception and get a first round pick. In order to get a hold of who these players may be let's look at 2012 free agents who may be less attractive on the market in 2012/willing to accept a minimum contract to play for a contender:
Kirk Hinrich
Boris Diaw
Keith Bogans
Baron Davis
Andre Miller
Ben Wallace
James Posey
Chris Kaman
Matt Barnes
Eddie House
Nazr Mohammed
(There is also the option of the Mid-Level Exception which would allow the Knicks to even exceed the Luxury Tax Cap with a $5 million dollar signing) Unless my math is out of whack, can someone please explain why the Knicks would be unable to do this?
A basic rule that needs to be stated is that all NBA teams are limited by a salary cap. This means that any contract that causes the team to exceed the salary cap (currently at $58,043,000) will be void. However, in the NBA, unlike the NHL, the salary cap is a soft cap. It is called soft because there are several exceptions that can apply which will allow certain contracts to exceed the cap without becoming void. An example of exceptions are Bird's Rights, Rookie Contracts, Non-Bird Rights and Mid-Level Exceptions. If a player signs a contract with a team that puts them over the salary cap, but fits into one of these exceptions, his contract will not be void and that team will be allowed to exceed the cap.
In addition, there is a provision called the Amnesty Clause which allows a team to waive a player under contract without that player's salary counting against the salary cap or luxury tax. You can only amnesty one player during the duration of the new CBA. This basically means that for cap calculating purposes you can basically erase that player from the numbers. (The Amnesty Clause of the previous CBA, still counted against the cap, while did not count towards luxury tax penalties. However, indications are that the new CBA's Amnesty Clause will not count against the cap)
Renaldo Balkman is set to make $1,675,000 for the 2012-2013 season. All reports suggest that he will be amnestied, so his salary will not count towards the Knicks cap.
2012-2013 Salaries (w/o exceptions)
Amar'e Stoudemire $19,450,000
Carmelo Anthony $19,948,799
Imam Schumpert $1,444,000 (can be up to 120% of this number which would be $1,732,800)
Toney Douglas (TO) $2,067,880 (can not excercise Bird Rights exception b/c he has team option)
Total Sum: $42,910,679
2012-2013 Cap: $61,000,000
Difference: $18,089,321
Max Salary NBA in first year (7 yr Player): $16,324,500
(Source http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q11)
Difference: $1,564,821
This analysis will thus proceed from the idea that Paul will take a max contract. Unless my math is wrong, this seems entirely possible.
2012-2013 Salaries (not limited by cap)
Landry Fields $1,675,000? (min. salary would be $916,100 and could not exceed 175%)
The exception that would apply to Landry Fields would be the Early Bird Rights. Early Bird Rights apply to players who have spent at least 2 years with their current team without entering free agency or being waived. Fields will just have finished his 2nd year of his rookie contract and would qualify for the Early Bird Exception in his 3rd year (2012-2013 season). This, of course, assumes that Fields does not get a big head and try to go out into free agency and try to get his big pay day.
Draft Pick $1,350,000? (assuming Rd. 1 Pk. 20)
We do not currently have a draft pick in 2012, however one of the major goals for this season will be to acquire one. If the Knicks are truly serious about getting Chris Paul, they will need to sign a rookie in 2012, because that salary will not be limited by the cap. The Rookie signing exception allows a team to sign their first round draft pick without being limited by the cap. I will not speculate as to who could be traded to collect a draft pick.
Shawne Williams? $916,100? (salary would not be able to exceed 175% of previous salary
Depending on what the Knicks do with his contract this year, Shawne Williams could qualify for the Earl Bird Exception, as he would have played 2 years with the team without being waived or entering free agency. This could be complicated in that the lockout prevented the Knicks from signing him in the offseason, and he will technically be a free agent on December 9th, but I believe if we sign him to a 1 year contract this year he would meet this exception. If we cannot get Williams under an exception we may have to sign him with whatever remains after Paul is signed.
Bill Walker $947,907?
Bill Walker, having been with the team for 3 years at that point, would qualify for the Birds Rights Exception. Any player whose rights have been controlled by a team for 3 years without being waived or entering free agency qualifies for this exception. At the end of the 3 year period, the team can re-sign him and claim the Bird Exception and that player's salary will not count against the salary cap. In addition, all indications are that he would be willing to sign for the league minimum, which would also not count against the cap.
3-4 Minimum Contracts (salary impossible to predict)
As has been stated earlier, a minimum contract is not limited by the cap. The Knicks would most likely have to sign 4 of these players to field a full roster, perhaps 3 depending on whether or not we are able to sign Shawne Williams with an exception and get a first round pick. In order to get a hold of who these players may be let's look at 2012 free agents who may be less attractive on the market in 2012/willing to accept a minimum contract to play for a contender:
Kirk Hinrich
Boris Diaw
Keith Bogans
Baron Davis
Andre Miller
Ben Wallace
James Posey
Chris Kaman
Matt Barnes
Eddie House
Nazr Mohammed
(There is also the option of the Mid-Level Exception which would allow the Knicks to even exceed the Luxury Tax Cap with a $5 million dollar signing) Unless my math is out of whack, can someone please explain why the Knicks would be unable to do this?
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Cutting Through The Spin: The Reality of Chris Paul
Ever since the ending of the lockout, there have been hundreds of articles speculating about whether Chris Paul will end up on the Knicks in 2012. Most of them have been completely and utterly vacant of facts and rational analysis. Many of them leave you more confused after you get done reading. The baffling thing is that the facts are out there, and their analysis does not need to be so heavily based in wild speculation.
There are two realities that need to be expressed up front:
(1) Unless the Hornets give him away, we will not be able to trade for Paul this season.
To illustrate this, lets just look at pure mathematics; Chris Paul is set to make $16,359,802 this year. NBA rules require that the team with the highest sum of salary be no more than 125% of the lower team's sum of salary. Hence, $16,359,802 is 125% of $12,269,852, the minimum salary that the Knicks would have to put up in exchange for Paul. Conversely, $20,449,753 is 125% of $16,359,802, the maximum salary the Knicks could put up in a straight trade for Paul.
If the Hornets do not agree to get Billups in a trade, the entire remaining Knicks roster only adds up to somewhere around $10 million. So, in summation absent trading Chauncey Billups and someone else for Paul (the Hornets wouldn't want this, it's stupid) the entire remaining roster of the Knicks would not add up to enough to satisfy the NBA rules for matching salaries in a trade. If the Hornets did accept a trade for Billups and a couple of bums, (they won't) all Knicks fans would rise in unison and thank the happy heavens. The only real asset that we could add with Billups would be (Fields or Schumpert) and Toney Douglas (maybe we throw in Billy Walker too). I would make that trade 7 days a week and then twice on Sunday. The problem of this of course is that none of these players are signed into 2012 (although Fields and Schumpert will probably be when they get their new contracts this season). Anyway, the likelihood of this happening is beyond slim because nobody wants Chauncey Billups for 1 season, especially not in exchange for Chris Paul. The only way this works is if Chris Paul straight up refuses to sign an extension with any team other than the Knicks. Melo didn't have the balls to do this, and I doubt Paul will either.
(2) The Knicks will have cap space for Paul regardless of what the cap is for 2012.
The cap for the 2011-2012 season will be $58,043,000. This cap will be adjusted for revenue for the 2012-2013 season. Economic projections suggest that the cap for 2012-2013 will rise to around $61,000,000. (Source http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22748484/33070493)
The Knicks only have 2 players guaranteed under contract: Anthony and Stoudemire (this assumes that the Knicks use the Amnesty Clause on Renaldo Balkman, which they will probably do). The rest of the team rounds out to Toney Douglas (Team Option), Imam Schumpert (whatever his contract becomes) and Landry Fields (assuming the Knicks choose to sign him). Therefore, the roster breaks down like this:
2012-2013 Roster
Carmelo Anthony- 19,450,000
Amar'e Stoudemire- 19,948,799
Toney Douglas- 2,067,880 (Option)
Imam Schumpert- 1,444,000 (Second year 17th pick salary scale)
Landry Fields- 1,675,000 (would count as early-bird exception and could go over cap)
______________________________
Total- 40,868,799
This means that under the current cap, the Knicks would have close to $17 million to play with. Under the projected cap the Knicks will have close to $20 million to play with. Under each scenario, there would be 4 players on the roster. That means that after adding Chris Paul, the Knicks would need to have enough money to add 7 more players. None of their rookie signings would count against them, as that is an exception to the cap rule. We should have at least 1 first round pick before the end of the season (we traded ours to Houston, although I can't imagine we don't acquire one before season's end), making it 6 more players needed. In addition, resigning Landry Fields to the 3rd year of his rookie contract would be an exception (early-bird) to the cap, so his signing would not count to cap restrictions (this is assuming the Knicks would be able to sign Paul, putting them at the cap, then exercise Fields Bird-Rights subsequently)**. Meaning there would be 5 more players needed to fill out the roster, under the cap, after Paul is signed. However, if we signed all veteran minimums (which are not restricted by the cap), or league minimums to round out the roster we would be able to pay Paul a decent amount and still field a team.
Under the projected revenue scenario, the Knicks would have $20 million to sign Paul and 5 other players. This seems like a daunting task, however none of the veteran minimums would be restricted by the cap and would allow the Knicks to pay out above the cap. To put in perspective, the Miami Heat had at least 4 players at the veteran minimum last year (Erick Dampier, 35, Juwan Howard, 38, Jamaal Magloire, 33, or Mike Bibby, 33) and I believe they had as many as 6-7 (Carlos Arroyo, Zadrunas Ilgauskus and maybe James Jones). The Knicks would not have to do nearly as much, only needing to sign 4 minimums to field a 12 man roster. Below find minimum salary scale.
Therefore, it appears to me that the Knicks could offer Chris Paul $17 million and still afford a cheap player ($3 million) under the salary cap, and then add 4 more minimums in addition to their roster obligations to Imam Schumpert, Toney Douglas; signing their first round pick and exercising the early-bird exception on Landry Fields.
That would field a roster of:
PG- Paul
SG- Fields
SF- Anthony
PF- Stoudemire
C- Sign Center for $3 Mil
Bench
Imam Schumpert
Toney Douglas
First Round Pick
Min.
Min.
Min.
Min.
If this analysis is accurate, then why are all the prognosticators acting as if this would be such a difficult task? Are we to believe that Paul would not play for New York for a reduced salary because he could get a couple more million a year elsewhere? Even despite the fact he would make it up in endorsement revenue just due to the fact he was in the biggest media market. I don't understand the logic on saying that the Knicks couldn't get this done.
**Not sure if this is allowed, i.e. Knicks might have to exercise Bird-Rights prior to signing Paul.
There are two realities that need to be expressed up front:
(1) Unless the Hornets give him away, we will not be able to trade for Paul this season.
To illustrate this, lets just look at pure mathematics; Chris Paul is set to make $16,359,802 this year. NBA rules require that the team with the highest sum of salary be no more than 125% of the lower team's sum of salary. Hence, $16,359,802 is 125% of $12,269,852, the minimum salary that the Knicks would have to put up in exchange for Paul. Conversely, $20,449,753 is 125% of $16,359,802, the maximum salary the Knicks could put up in a straight trade for Paul.
If the Hornets do not agree to get Billups in a trade, the entire remaining Knicks roster only adds up to somewhere around $10 million. So, in summation absent trading Chauncey Billups and someone else for Paul (the Hornets wouldn't want this, it's stupid) the entire remaining roster of the Knicks would not add up to enough to satisfy the NBA rules for matching salaries in a trade. If the Hornets did accept a trade for Billups and a couple of bums, (they won't) all Knicks fans would rise in unison and thank the happy heavens. The only real asset that we could add with Billups would be (Fields or Schumpert) and Toney Douglas (maybe we throw in Billy Walker too). I would make that trade 7 days a week and then twice on Sunday. The problem of this of course is that none of these players are signed into 2012 (although Fields and Schumpert will probably be when they get their new contracts this season). Anyway, the likelihood of this happening is beyond slim because nobody wants Chauncey Billups for 1 season, especially not in exchange for Chris Paul. The only way this works is if Chris Paul straight up refuses to sign an extension with any team other than the Knicks. Melo didn't have the balls to do this, and I doubt Paul will either.
(2) The Knicks will have cap space for Paul regardless of what the cap is for 2012.
The cap for the 2011-2012 season will be $58,043,000. This cap will be adjusted for revenue for the 2012-2013 season. Economic projections suggest that the cap for 2012-2013 will rise to around $61,000,000. (Source http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22748484/33070493)
The Knicks only have 2 players guaranteed under contract: Anthony and Stoudemire (this assumes that the Knicks use the Amnesty Clause on Renaldo Balkman, which they will probably do). The rest of the team rounds out to Toney Douglas (Team Option), Imam Schumpert (whatever his contract becomes) and Landry Fields (assuming the Knicks choose to sign him). Therefore, the roster breaks down like this:
2012-2013 Roster
Carmelo Anthony- 19,450,000
Amar'e Stoudemire- 19,948,799
Toney Douglas- 2,067,880 (Option)
Imam Schumpert- 1,444,000 (Second year 17th pick salary scale)
______________________________
Total- 40,868,799
This means that under the current cap, the Knicks would have close to $17 million to play with. Under the projected cap the Knicks will have close to $20 million to play with. Under each scenario, there would be 4 players on the roster. That means that after adding Chris Paul, the Knicks would need to have enough money to add 7 more players. None of their rookie signings would count against them, as that is an exception to the cap rule. We should have at least 1 first round pick before the end of the season (we traded ours to Houston, although I can't imagine we don't acquire one before season's end), making it 6 more players needed. In addition, resigning Landry Fields to the 3rd year of his rookie contract would be an exception (early-bird) to the cap, so his signing would not count to cap restrictions (this is assuming the Knicks would be able to sign Paul, putting them at the cap, then exercise Fields Bird-Rights subsequently)**. Meaning there would be 5 more players needed to fill out the roster, under the cap, after Paul is signed. However, if we signed all veteran minimums (which are not restricted by the cap), or league minimums to round out the roster we would be able to pay Paul a decent amount and still field a team.
Under the projected revenue scenario, the Knicks would have $20 million to sign Paul and 5 other players. This seems like a daunting task, however none of the veteran minimums would be restricted by the cap and would allow the Knicks to pay out above the cap. To put in perspective, the Miami Heat had at least 4 players at the veteran minimum last year (Erick Dampier, 35, Juwan Howard, 38, Jamaal Magloire, 33, or Mike Bibby, 33) and I believe they had as many as 6-7 (Carlos Arroyo, Zadrunas Ilgauskus and maybe James Jones). The Knicks would not have to do nearly as much, only needing to sign 4 minimums to field a 12 man roster. Below find minimum salary scale.
Therefore, it appears to me that the Knicks could offer Chris Paul $17 million and still afford a cheap player ($3 million) under the salary cap, and then add 4 more minimums in addition to their roster obligations to Imam Schumpert, Toney Douglas; signing their first round pick and exercising the early-bird exception on Landry Fields.
That would field a roster of:
PG- Paul
SG- Fields
SF- Anthony
PF- Stoudemire
C- Sign Center for $3 Mil
Bench
Imam Schumpert
Toney Douglas
First Round Pick
Min.
Min.
Min.
Min.
If this analysis is accurate, then why are all the prognosticators acting as if this would be such a difficult task? Are we to believe that Paul would not play for New York for a reduced salary because he could get a couple more million a year elsewhere? Even despite the fact he would make it up in endorsement revenue just due to the fact he was in the biggest media market. I don't understand the logic on saying that the Knicks couldn't get this done.
**Not sure if this is allowed, i.e. Knicks might have to exercise Bird-Rights prior to signing Paul.
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