Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Cutting Through the Spin: The Reality of Chris Paul 2

I wanted to get more in depth with the options that the Knicks have in pursuing Chris Paul. For instance, I noted that the Knicks would most likely have to sign 4 minimum contracts to fill the roster; who could these people be? Which salaries would be limited by the cap? Which ones would fit into an exception? And why?

A basic rule that needs to be stated is that all NBA teams are limited by a salary cap. This means that any contract that causes the team to exceed the salary cap (currently at $58,043,000) will be void. However, in the NBA, unlike the NHL, the salary cap is a soft cap. It is called soft because there are several exceptions that can apply which will allow certain contracts to exceed the cap without becoming void. An example of exceptions are Bird's Rights, Rookie Contracts, Non-Bird Rights and Mid-Level Exceptions. If a player signs a contract with a team that puts them over the salary cap, but fits into one of these exceptions, his contract will not be void and that team will be allowed to exceed the cap.

In addition, there is a provision called the Amnesty Clause which allows a team to waive a player under contract without that player's salary counting against the salary cap or luxury tax. You can only amnesty one player during the duration of the new CBA. This basically means that for cap calculating purposes you can basically erase that player from the numbers. (The Amnesty Clause of the previous CBA, still counted against the cap, while did not count towards luxury tax penalties. However, indications are that the new CBA's Amnesty Clause will not count against the cap)

Renaldo Balkman is set to make $1,675,000 for the 2012-2013 season. All reports suggest that he will be amnestied, so his salary will not count towards the Knicks cap.

2012-2013 Salaries (w/o exceptions)

Amar'e Stoudemire        $19,450,000
Carmelo Anthony          $19,948,799
Imam Schumpert           $1,444,000     (can be up to 120% of this number which would be $1,732,800)
Toney Douglas (TO)     $2,067,880     (can not excercise Bird Rights exception b/c he has team option)

Total Sum:                    $42,910,679
2012-2013 Cap:          $61,000,000
Difference:                    $18,089,321  

Max Salary NBA in first year (7 yr Player):         $16,324,500
(Source http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q11)  
Difference:                                                          $1,564,821

This analysis will thus proceed from the idea that Paul will take a max contract. Unless my math is wrong, this seems entirely possible.

2012-2013 Salaries (not limited by cap)

Landry Fields               $1,675,000?     (min. salary would be $916,100 and could not exceed 175%)

The exception that would apply to Landry Fields would be the Early Bird Rights. Early Bird Rights apply to players who have spent at least 2 years with their current team without entering free agency or being waived. Fields will just have finished his 2nd year of his rookie contract and would qualify for the Early Bird Exception in his 3rd year (2012-2013 season). This, of course, assumes that Fields does not get a big head and try to go out into free agency and try to get his big pay day.

Draft Pick                   $1,350,000?     (assuming Rd. 1 Pk. 20)

We do not currently have a draft pick in 2012, however one of the major goals for this season will be to acquire one. If the Knicks are truly serious about getting Chris Paul, they will need to sign a rookie in 2012, because that salary will not be limited by the cap. The Rookie signing exception allows a team to sign their first round draft pick without being limited by the cap. I will not speculate as to who could be traded to collect a draft pick.

Shawne Williams?      $916,100?   (salary would not be able to exceed 175% of previous salary

Depending on what the Knicks do with his contract this year, Shawne Williams could qualify for the Earl Bird Exception, as he would have played 2 years with the team without being waived or entering free agency. This could be complicated in that the lockout prevented the Knicks from signing him in the offseason, and he will technically be a free agent on December 9th, but I believe if we sign him to a 1 year contract this year he would meet this exception. If we cannot get Williams under an exception we may have to sign him with whatever remains after Paul is signed.

Bill Walker                $947,907?

Bill Walker, having been with the team for 3 years at that point, would qualify for the Birds Rights Exception. Any player whose rights have been controlled by a team for 3 years without being waived or entering free agency qualifies for this exception. At the end of the 3 year period, the team can re-sign him and claim the Bird Exception and that player's salary will not count against the salary cap. In addition, all indications are that he would be willing to sign for the league minimum, which would also not count against the cap.

3-4 Minimum Contracts (salary impossible to predict)

As has been stated earlier, a minimum contract is not limited by the cap. The Knicks would most likely have to sign 4 of these players to field a full roster, perhaps 3 depending on whether or not we are able to sign Shawne Williams with an exception and get a first round pick. In order to get a hold of who these players may be let's look at 2012 free agents who may be less attractive on the market in 2012/willing to accept a minimum contract to play for a contender:
Kirk Hinrich
Boris Diaw
Keith Bogans
Baron Davis
Andre Miller
Ben Wallace
James Posey
Chris Kaman
Matt Barnes
Eddie House
Nazr Mohammed

(There is also the option of the Mid-Level Exception which would allow the Knicks to even exceed the Luxury Tax Cap with a $5 million dollar signing) Unless my math is out of whack, can someone please explain why the Knicks would be unable to do this?

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