There are two realities that need to be expressed up front:
(1) Unless the Hornets give him away, we will not be able to trade for Paul this season.
To illustrate this, lets just look at pure mathematics; Chris Paul is set to make $16,359,802 this year. NBA rules require that the team with the highest sum of salary be no more than 125% of the lower team's sum of salary. Hence, $16,359,802 is 125% of $12,269,852, the minimum salary that the Knicks would have to put up in exchange for Paul. Conversely, $20,449,753 is 125% of $16,359,802, the maximum salary the Knicks could put up in a straight trade for Paul.
If the Hornets do not agree to get Billups in a trade, the entire remaining Knicks roster only adds up to somewhere around $10 million. So, in summation absent trading Chauncey Billups and someone else for Paul (the Hornets wouldn't want this, it's stupid) the entire remaining roster of the Knicks would not add up to enough to satisfy the NBA rules for matching salaries in a trade. If the Hornets did accept a trade for Billups and a couple of bums, (they won't) all Knicks fans would rise in unison and thank the happy heavens. The only real asset that we could add with Billups would be (Fields or Schumpert) and Toney Douglas (maybe we throw in Billy Walker too). I would make that trade 7 days a week and then twice on Sunday. The problem of this of course is that none of these players are signed into 2012 (although Fields and Schumpert will probably be when they get their new contracts this season). Anyway, the likelihood of this happening is beyond slim because nobody wants Chauncey Billups for 1 season, especially not in exchange for Chris Paul. The only way this works is if Chris Paul straight up refuses to sign an extension with any team other than the Knicks. Melo didn't have the balls to do this, and I doubt Paul will either.
(2) The Knicks will have cap space for Paul regardless of what the cap is for 2012.
The cap for the 2011-2012 season will be $58,043,000. This cap will be adjusted for revenue for the 2012-2013 season. Economic projections suggest that the cap for 2012-2013 will rise to around $61,000,000. (Source http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22748484/33070493)
The Knicks only have 2 players guaranteed under contract: Anthony and Stoudemire (this assumes that the Knicks use the Amnesty Clause on Renaldo Balkman, which they will probably do). The rest of the team rounds out to Toney Douglas (Team Option), Imam Schumpert (whatever his contract becomes) and Landry Fields (assuming the Knicks choose to sign him). Therefore, the roster breaks down like this:
2012-2013 Roster
Carmelo Anthony- 19,450,000
Amar'e Stoudemire- 19,948,799
Toney Douglas- 2,067,880 (Option)
Imam Schumpert- 1,444,000 (Second year 17th pick salary scale)
______________________________
Total- 40,868,799
This means that under the current cap, the Knicks would have close to $17 million to play with. Under the projected cap the Knicks will have close to $20 million to play with. Under each scenario, there would be 4 players on the roster. That means that after adding Chris Paul, the Knicks would need to have enough money to add 7 more players. None of their rookie signings would count against them, as that is an exception to the cap rule. We should have at least 1 first round pick before the end of the season (we traded ours to Houston, although I can't imagine we don't acquire one before season's end), making it 6 more players needed. In addition, resigning Landry Fields to the 3rd year of his rookie contract would be an exception (early-bird) to the cap, so his signing would not count to cap restrictions (this is assuming the Knicks would be able to sign Paul, putting them at the cap, then exercise Fields Bird-Rights subsequently)**. Meaning there would be 5 more players needed to fill out the roster, under the cap, after Paul is signed. However, if we signed all veteran minimums (which are not restricted by the cap), or league minimums to round out the roster we would be able to pay Paul a decent amount and still field a team.
Under the projected revenue scenario, the Knicks would have $20 million to sign Paul and 5 other players. This seems like a daunting task, however none of the veteran minimums would be restricted by the cap and would allow the Knicks to pay out above the cap. To put in perspective, the Miami Heat had at least 4 players at the veteran minimum last year (Erick Dampier, 35, Juwan Howard, 38, Jamaal Magloire, 33, or Mike Bibby, 33) and I believe they had as many as 6-7 (Carlos Arroyo, Zadrunas Ilgauskus and maybe James Jones). The Knicks would not have to do nearly as much, only needing to sign 4 minimums to field a 12 man roster. Below find minimum salary scale.
Therefore, it appears to me that the Knicks could offer Chris Paul $17 million and still afford a cheap player ($3 million) under the salary cap, and then add 4 more minimums in addition to their roster obligations to Imam Schumpert, Toney Douglas; signing their first round pick and exercising the early-bird exception on Landry Fields.
That would field a roster of:
PG- Paul
SG- Fields
SF- Anthony
PF- Stoudemire
C- Sign Center for $3 Mil
Bench
Imam Schumpert
Toney Douglas
First Round Pick
Min.
Min.
Min.
Min.
If this analysis is accurate, then why are all the prognosticators acting as if this would be such a difficult task? Are we to believe that Paul would not play for New York for a reduced salary because he could get a couple more million a year elsewhere? Even despite the fact he would make it up in endorsement revenue just due to the fact he was in the biggest media market. I don't understand the logic on saying that the Knicks couldn't get this done.
**Not sure if this is allowed, i.e. Knicks might have to exercise Bird-Rights prior to signing Paul.
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