While this is not a terrible surprise (I would have hoped we could have gotten more talent for the minimum), the Knicks have come to an oral agreement to sign Jared Jeffries (aka butter fingers). No real signings can occur until December 9th, but it has been well known for a while that Jeffries desired to sign with the Knicks if they would have him. His contract will be a 1 year at the veteran's minimum of $1.4 million. (Source Daily News)
The major question that I have is: Is this a sign that the other centers that were discussed as receiving interest from the Knicks are unreceptive to playing here for the price we will be offering. The Daily News report indicates that they believe the Knicks are still strongly looking at more Center depth, but with Turiaf on the roster and all reports signaling that Jerome Jordan will be a Knick at the beginning of the year, does this mean that Jeffries will be our last center signing (absent Shelden Williams for insurance). Is it reading too much into the scenario to think that if we had a verbal committment/serious interest from someone like Jeff Foster, that we might forgoe signing Jeffries and perhaps begin looking for guard depth. To me his signing signals that we are not getting any more help in the big man department (which is not a good sign). It is clear that he is a D'Antoni favorite, but from a talent perspective, you have to say he is a bottom tier center and his signing can only be seen as a last resort.
Tuesday, December 6, 2011
Monday, December 5, 2011
Cutting Through the Spin: The Reality of Chris Paul 4
One of the biggest unanswered questions of this pre-season has been if the Knicks blatantly choose to avoid going after Chris Paul, what kind of moves could they make and what team could they field? Thats exactly what I would like to look at today.
There are several intriguing names that have come up in the Knicks stratosphere that they could go after if they are not handcuffed with the 1 year contract philosophy that must be adopted in order to be in the running for Paul's services in 2012. The most intriguing name (in my opinion) is our old boy Ill Will (Wilson Chandler). Chandler's situation is a unique and interesting one. He signed a 1 year deal in China that he expects to honor. The Chinese season ends in February 2012, allowing time for Chandler to sign with an NBA team before the season ends (assumedly before the deadline, since it will most likely be pushed back). Chandler is a restricted free agent with Denver (giving them the ability to match any offer), making his acquisition costly in a bidding war. However, if his Chinese team makes the playoffs he may not be able to sign with an NBA team this year, making him an unrestricted free agent in 2012. Ill Will has repeatedly expressed a desire to come back to New York. I love this guy and if you look at his numbers in China (recently had a 44 point 22 rebound game) the Knicks would immediately become dangerous with him on the roster. Keep your ears open in February for the developments of how he re-enters the NBA, since the method seriously affects the Knicks ability to acquire him.
Another intriguing 2012 free agent option is...dare I say it...Elton Brand. I seethe when I hear his name, however he is a dangerous player when he is on, and when Melo or Stoudemire draw double teams, his jumper could be deadly. This obviously all depends on whether Brand is amnestied by the Sixers this year. In addition, while Brand could be a good fit for the Knicks, his asking price with the Sixers is way too high. I think that everyone knows today that Brand is not worth half the contract that he received from the Sixers. If Brand is able to figure that out by 2012, the Knicks might be able to pick him up on the (relatively) cheap and use him as a good bench/insurance for Amar'e player on the roster.
Also, by not going after Chris Paul the Knicks do not have to worry so much about having $13-$17 million in cap space next year and can make some moves after December 9th. The roster moves that would be most important would be finding a big man to support Amar'e from the blows in the paint and bolster the weak rebounding and defense of the current Knicks roster. Without being handcuffed by the cap I believe these names become part of the Knicks stratosphere:
Samuel Dalembert
Jeff Foster
Hence, if they use some of the money they expect to pay Paul on a combination of, perhaps, Dalembert (MLE) and Wilson Chandler (2012) we would be looking at a very dangerous team. Hollinger predicts there will be $13 million available, so my analysis will proceed given this number. Given my analysis of what players we could take on through exceptions, lets us look at a purely hypothetical roster:
Samuel Dalembert (5 mil MLE in 2011)
Wilson Chandler (6-7 mil signing in 2012)
Andre Miller (2-3 mil signing in 2012)
PG: Andre Miller
SG: Landry Fields
SF: Carmelo Anthony
PF: Amar'e Stoudemire
C: Samuel Dalembert
6: Wilson Chandler (sixth man of year, also takes time off Stoudemire's back)
7: Toney Douglas
8: Imam Schumpert
9: Jerome Jordan
10: Shawne Williams
11: Bill Walker
12: Andy Rautins
Better analysis to come when we see what initial moves the Knicks make after the free agent signing period begins.
There are several intriguing names that have come up in the Knicks stratosphere that they could go after if they are not handcuffed with the 1 year contract philosophy that must be adopted in order to be in the running for Paul's services in 2012. The most intriguing name (in my opinion) is our old boy Ill Will (Wilson Chandler). Chandler's situation is a unique and interesting one. He signed a 1 year deal in China that he expects to honor. The Chinese season ends in February 2012, allowing time for Chandler to sign with an NBA team before the season ends (assumedly before the deadline, since it will most likely be pushed back). Chandler is a restricted free agent with Denver (giving them the ability to match any offer), making his acquisition costly in a bidding war. However, if his Chinese team makes the playoffs he may not be able to sign with an NBA team this year, making him an unrestricted free agent in 2012. Ill Will has repeatedly expressed a desire to come back to New York. I love this guy and if you look at his numbers in China (recently had a 44 point 22 rebound game) the Knicks would immediately become dangerous with him on the roster. Keep your ears open in February for the developments of how he re-enters the NBA, since the method seriously affects the Knicks ability to acquire him.
Another intriguing 2012 free agent option is...dare I say it...Elton Brand. I seethe when I hear his name, however he is a dangerous player when he is on, and when Melo or Stoudemire draw double teams, his jumper could be deadly. This obviously all depends on whether Brand is amnestied by the Sixers this year. In addition, while Brand could be a good fit for the Knicks, his asking price with the Sixers is way too high. I think that everyone knows today that Brand is not worth half the contract that he received from the Sixers. If Brand is able to figure that out by 2012, the Knicks might be able to pick him up on the (relatively) cheap and use him as a good bench/insurance for Amar'e player on the roster.
Also, by not going after Chris Paul the Knicks do not have to worry so much about having $13-$17 million in cap space next year and can make some moves after December 9th. The roster moves that would be most important would be finding a big man to support Amar'e from the blows in the paint and bolster the weak rebounding and defense of the current Knicks roster. Without being handcuffed by the cap I believe these names become part of the Knicks stratosphere:
Samuel Dalembert
Jeff Foster
Hence, if they use some of the money they expect to pay Paul on a combination of, perhaps, Dalembert (MLE) and Wilson Chandler (2012) we would be looking at a very dangerous team. Hollinger predicts there will be $13 million available, so my analysis will proceed given this number. Given my analysis of what players we could take on through exceptions, lets us look at a purely hypothetical roster:
Samuel Dalembert (5 mil MLE in 2011)
Wilson Chandler (6-7 mil signing in 2012)
Andre Miller (2-3 mil signing in 2012)
PG: Andre Miller
SG: Landry Fields
SF: Carmelo Anthony
PF: Amar'e Stoudemire
C: Samuel Dalembert
6: Wilson Chandler (sixth man of year, also takes time off Stoudemire's back)
7: Toney Douglas
8: Imam Schumpert
9: Jerome Jordan
10: Shawne Williams
11: Bill Walker
12: Andy Rautins
Better analysis to come when we see what initial moves the Knicks make after the free agent signing period begins.
The Mid-Level Exception
There was an article in the Daily News today that stated the Knicks might be willing to use their mid-level exception on Jeff Foster, Anthony Parker or Grant Hill this year. News of such a move is confusing, since the mid-level exception has slightly changed under the new CBA. How does this effect the Knicks salary? Does it impact their ability to sign free agents in 2012? Let us first look at what the current mid-level exception is:
"Any team over the cap gets a four-year mid-level ($5 million max for year one) contract signing that is not limited by the cap . It can be used to sign one player for the $5 million or several players for a sum of $5 million."
The first year of a mid-level exception is not limited by the salary cap, but what about the next 3 years. If the Knicks signed Foster for $5 million for 4 years, does that mean that they will add $5 million to their salary in year 2, 3 and 4 (which would, of course, limit their ability to woo Chris Paul in the offseason)?
The answer to this question is...yes. The salary of the mid-level player (or players) does begin to count/be limited against the cap, beginning in year 2 and for any subsequent years of the contract. Essentially, any team that signs a player for the MLE in year 1 when they are over the cap, and then is not over the cap in year 2, that MLE money ($5 million) goes toward the calculation of salary. Therefore, in 2012, the Knicks would have $5 million less in cap space to sign free agents. This means that such a signing would reduce the likelihood of signing Chris Paul in 2012.
Also, there is another limiting feature to the use of the mid-level exception, that could effect who the Knicks will be able to sign in 2012.
"If you use the full mid-level to get to or approach that barrier looming $4 million over the tax line, you cannot cross it by re-signing your own free agents via Larry Bird Rights. You can cross it to sign rookies or players on veteran minimum contracts."
This means if you use the mid-level exception, and that move moves your salary total to above the luxury tax line, but below the $4 million mark above the luxury tax line, you can no longer use your Bird-Rights exceptions to sign any players that would take you over that magical line. Essentially, you can now only sign minimum contracts to fill up your roster. The Knicks are no where near that salary point yet, but it will be an important point not to cross considering that players, such as Landry Fields and Bill Walker might be signed in 2012 using Birds-Rights exceptions.
"Any team over the cap gets a four-year mid-level ($5 million max for year one) contract signing that is not limited by the cap . It can be used to sign one player for the $5 million or several players for a sum of $5 million."
| Non-Tax Payer MLE | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5 | |
| Year 2 | $5 | |
| Year 3 | $5.15 | |
| Year 4 | $5.30 | |
The first year of a mid-level exception is not limited by the salary cap, but what about the next 3 years. If the Knicks signed Foster for $5 million for 4 years, does that mean that they will add $5 million to their salary in year 2, 3 and 4 (which would, of course, limit their ability to woo Chris Paul in the offseason)?
The answer to this question is...yes. The salary of the mid-level player (or players) does begin to count/be limited against the cap, beginning in year 2 and for any subsequent years of the contract. Essentially, any team that signs a player for the MLE in year 1 when they are over the cap, and then is not over the cap in year 2, that MLE money ($5 million) goes toward the calculation of salary. Therefore, in 2012, the Knicks would have $5 million less in cap space to sign free agents. This means that such a signing would reduce the likelihood of signing Chris Paul in 2012.
Also, there is another limiting feature to the use of the mid-level exception, that could effect who the Knicks will be able to sign in 2012.
"If you use the full mid-level to get to or approach that barrier looming $4 million over the tax line, you cannot cross it by re-signing your own free agents via Larry Bird Rights. You can cross it to sign rookies or players on veteran minimum contracts."
This means if you use the mid-level exception, and that move moves your salary total to above the luxury tax line, but below the $4 million mark above the luxury tax line, you can no longer use your Bird-Rights exceptions to sign any players that would take you over that magical line. Essentially, you can now only sign minimum contracts to fill up your roster. The Knicks are no where near that salary point yet, but it will be an important point not to cross considering that players, such as Landry Fields and Bill Walker might be signed in 2012 using Birds-Rights exceptions.
Friday, December 2, 2011
Thursday, December 1, 2011
Cutting Through The Spin: The Reality of Chris Paul 3
The news stories today are that Chris Paul has demanded, through an intermediary, to be traded to the Knicks. The initial gasps of columnists were, of course, the Knicks have nothing to trade! They have no assets! While these claims are all technically true, they are besides the point. As I have outlined before, the only way a trade gets done with the Knicks and the Hornets is if Paul unequivocally states that he will not sign with anyone else (he will not do this, it will hurt his brand and Paul is not known for taking daring moves). In such a scenario, New Orleans hand will be forced and the Knicks lack of tradable assets will mean very little.
However, let us just contemplate what a sign and trade might look like between the Knicks and Hornets if there was a desire to exchange equivalent assets.*
First, we must look at the relevant rule that limits how much money the Knicks can take on, i.e. can they go well over the cap? The relevant rule in question states:
"Teams above the cap (which the Knicks are) cannot acquire more than 125% plus $100,000 of the salary they trade away. There is no lower limit—teams may divest themselves of as much salary as they wish in a trade." (Source wikipedia)
What this means is that the Knicks, if they were trading for Paul alone ($16,359,805), could not give away any less than $13,187,844 in return (125% + $100,000). This is relevant, because the Hornets are going to look to divest themselves of salary most likely (give away more salary than they take on) because if this trade happens, you can be sure they will be divesting themselves of more talent and thus they need to make it good for them in other ways. It is important to note that Chauncey Billups, a guaranteed part of any trade, makes more than this by himself. So, in order to divest themselves of the maximum amount of money, New Orleans is going to look to also get rid of a 2+ year contract of a player who is not a regular contributor.
The only one on their roster that currently fits that description is Quincy Poindexter. He only makes 1.1 million a year, but he is the only other Hornet with 2+ years left on his contract other than Trevor Ariza. I would assume that Ariza would be part of the Hornets future, but I will entertain a trade with him as well in this analysis. On the Knicks side, you would have to assume that the Hornets will go after the Knicks only remaining tradable assets: Landry Fields and Toney Douglas.
First Potential Trade
Chris Paul Chauncey Billups
Quincy Poindexter Landry Fields
Toney Douglas
$17,513,605 $16,134,512
This trade fits into the rule and would be successful. From a talent perspective it is not as lopsided as one would think. Poindexter is a throw in, but for the 2011-2012 season the gap between Chauncey Billups and Chris Paul is diluted somewhat by the addition of Fields and Douglas. One would also assume that future draft picks and cash consideration would be included in this trade.
Second Potential Trade
Chris Paul Chauncey Billups
Trevor Ariza Landry Fields
Toney Douglas
Ronny Turiaf
Renaldo Balkman
$23,150,445 $22,439,512
While this trade works, according to the rules, New Orleans fails to shed any salary and really loses out on a talent standpoint. This trade would never happen, even with Paul's insistence on only signing an extension with the Knicks.
If one would have to guess, the only scenario possible is that Paul leverages New Orleans to pull the trigger on trade #1. Outside of that, there would have to be a 3rd team to make this happen. Given the vast possibilites of a 3rd team at this point, I will not even discuss any of those possibilities.
*This analysis will of course change once the Knicks begin signing free agents after December 9th this year, thus giving them more assets.
However, let us just contemplate what a sign and trade might look like between the Knicks and Hornets if there was a desire to exchange equivalent assets.*
First, we must look at the relevant rule that limits how much money the Knicks can take on, i.e. can they go well over the cap? The relevant rule in question states:
"Teams above the cap (which the Knicks are) cannot acquire more than 125% plus $100,000 of the salary they trade away. There is no lower limit—teams may divest themselves of as much salary as they wish in a trade." (Source wikipedia)
What this means is that the Knicks, if they were trading for Paul alone ($16,359,805), could not give away any less than $13,187,844 in return (125% + $100,000). This is relevant, because the Hornets are going to look to divest themselves of salary most likely (give away more salary than they take on) because if this trade happens, you can be sure they will be divesting themselves of more talent and thus they need to make it good for them in other ways. It is important to note that Chauncey Billups, a guaranteed part of any trade, makes more than this by himself. So, in order to divest themselves of the maximum amount of money, New Orleans is going to look to also get rid of a 2+ year contract of a player who is not a regular contributor.
The only one on their roster that currently fits that description is Quincy Poindexter. He only makes 1.1 million a year, but he is the only other Hornet with 2+ years left on his contract other than Trevor Ariza. I would assume that Ariza would be part of the Hornets future, but I will entertain a trade with him as well in this analysis. On the Knicks side, you would have to assume that the Hornets will go after the Knicks only remaining tradable assets: Landry Fields and Toney Douglas.
First Potential Trade
Chris Paul Chauncey Billups
Quincy Poindexter Landry Fields
Toney Douglas
$17,513,605 $16,134,512
This trade fits into the rule and would be successful. From a talent perspective it is not as lopsided as one would think. Poindexter is a throw in, but for the 2011-2012 season the gap between Chauncey Billups and Chris Paul is diluted somewhat by the addition of Fields and Douglas. One would also assume that future draft picks and cash consideration would be included in this trade.
Second Potential Trade
Chris Paul Chauncey Billups
Trevor Ariza Landry Fields
Toney Douglas
Ronny Turiaf
Renaldo Balkman
$23,150,445 $22,439,512
While this trade works, according to the rules, New Orleans fails to shed any salary and really loses out on a talent standpoint. This trade would never happen, even with Paul's insistence on only signing an extension with the Knicks.
If one would have to guess, the only scenario possible is that Paul leverages New Orleans to pull the trigger on trade #1. Outside of that, there would have to be a 3rd team to make this happen. Given the vast possibilites of a 3rd team at this point, I will not even discuss any of those possibilities.
*This analysis will of course change once the Knicks begin signing free agents after December 9th this year, thus giving them more assets.
Free Agent Profile: Earl Watson
Watson is the fourth point guard profiled for the not unlikely, but not highly likely to sign with New York this year list. Watson made $1.2 million last season.
Point Guard
Played Last Season With Utah.
6'1'' 195lbs. 26. Career averages of 7.1 PPG and 4.5 APG. (4.3/3.5)
If there is ever a live action version of the movie "Dumbo", (see below) this guy will definitely get a call. In all seriousness, I love this guy as a back up to Chauncey. However, he ranks low on the list because I haven't even heard his name in the rumor of potential Knicks prospects. He is west-coast kid, he had a pretty decent season with Utah last year and has stated that he would like a long term contract. I don't think we will see this guy in a Knicks uniform, unfortunately.
[This kid has tremendous ears]
The most intriguing thing about Watson, is that despite his diminished role in a guard stacked line-up (Williams, Bell, Price) he put up decent numbers. If you look at his per 36 minutes stats he averaged close to 8 points and 7 assists last year. He is a quintessential spark plug guy; a guy who can get in and make things happen in a hurry. Also, Watson is a decent sized dude who is known to be a capable defender. Also, his low salary last year makes him the type of dependable guy who will not give the Knicks a hard time about his projected role. If nothing else, he would be the first Blaxican to play in a Knicks uniform [fact check].
Player most likely to be waived to get this player: Andy Rautins.
Point Guard
Played Last Season With Utah.
6'1'' 195lbs. 26. Career averages of 7.1 PPG and 4.5 APG. (4.3/3.5)
If there is ever a live action version of the movie "Dumbo", (see below) this guy will definitely get a call. In all seriousness, I love this guy as a back up to Chauncey. However, he ranks low on the list because I haven't even heard his name in the rumor of potential Knicks prospects. He is west-coast kid, he had a pretty decent season with Utah last year and has stated that he would like a long term contract. I don't think we will see this guy in a Knicks uniform, unfortunately.
[This kid has tremendous ears]The most intriguing thing about Watson, is that despite his diminished role in a guard stacked line-up (Williams, Bell, Price) he put up decent numbers. If you look at his per 36 minutes stats he averaged close to 8 points and 7 assists last year. He is a quintessential spark plug guy; a guy who can get in and make things happen in a hurry. Also, Watson is a decent sized dude who is known to be a capable defender. Also, his low salary last year makes him the type of dependable guy who will not give the Knicks a hard time about his projected role. If nothing else, he would be the first Blaxican to play in a Knicks uniform [fact check].
Player most likely to be waived to get this player: Andy Rautins.
Free Agent Profile: Sebastian Telfair
Telfair is the third point guard profiled for the not unlikely, but not highly likely to sign with New York this year list. Telfair made $2.7 million last season.
Point Guard
Played Last Season With Timberwolves.
6'0'' 165lbs. 26. Career averages of 7.8 PPG and 3.8APG. (7.2/3.0)
Could Brooklyn's prodigal* son be returning to the big city to revamp his career? Telfair has a combination of incredible upside, mixed with team cancer type qualities. The reason he is so low on this list is because he appears to be a head case (like his cousin Marbury) and the last thing the Knicks need on their roster is another damn headcase. The positive here: Telfair's career has taken so many bumps and bruises from a PR and playing time standpoint, he may be willing to come to New York for a 1 year minimum contract. The negative here: he can be a time bomb in the lockeroom and there is no guarantee that he is going to put in the effort in order to contribute in any fashion to the Knicks hopes of success this season.
But lets look at the Telfair's playing style. Anyone that has seen his documentary (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0457502/) is well aware of Telfair's ability to slash and see the court when he is one his game. His young age presents the promise that this point guard could resurect his career and show us all his first 7 years was a real fluke of bum-like behavior. Unfortunately, his attitude and past performance tells the tale Knicks fans are all too familiar with: a highly talented screw-up who literally can't bring himself to get out of his own way. If you look at his numbers you see a case study in mediocrity, however, if you look at his clips (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ubydt1V76mU) you see flashes of brilliance. In fact, his ability was enough for Knicks management to make a run at him last year. Only time will tell if this Brooklyn baller gets his act together and finds himself a valuable asset to a contending team.
*its hilarious how New Yorkers embrace native born players, regardless of their actual value.
Player most likely to be waived for this player: Andy Rautins.
Point Guard
Played Last Season With Timberwolves.
6'0'' 165lbs. 26. Career averages of 7.8 PPG and 3.8APG. (7.2/3.0)
Could Brooklyn's prodigal* son be returning to the big city to revamp his career? Telfair has a combination of incredible upside, mixed with team cancer type qualities. The reason he is so low on this list is because he appears to be a head case (like his cousin Marbury) and the last thing the Knicks need on their roster is another damn headcase. The positive here: Telfair's career has taken so many bumps and bruises from a PR and playing time standpoint, he may be willing to come to New York for a 1 year minimum contract. The negative here: he can be a time bomb in the lockeroom and there is no guarantee that he is going to put in the effort in order to contribute in any fashion to the Knicks hopes of success this season.
But lets look at the Telfair's playing style. Anyone that has seen his documentary (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0457502/) is well aware of Telfair's ability to slash and see the court when he is one his game. His young age presents the promise that this point guard could resurect his career and show us all his first 7 years was a real fluke of bum-like behavior. Unfortunately, his attitude and past performance tells the tale Knicks fans are all too familiar with: a highly talented screw-up who literally can't bring himself to get out of his own way. If you look at his numbers you see a case study in mediocrity, however, if you look at his clips (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ubydt1V76mU) you see flashes of brilliance. In fact, his ability was enough for Knicks management to make a run at him last year. Only time will tell if this Brooklyn baller gets his act together and finds himself a valuable asset to a contending team.
*its hilarious how New Yorkers embrace native born players, regardless of their actual value.
Player most likely to be waived for this player: Andy Rautins.
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